中国对“一带一路”沿线国家港口投资风险评价研究  

Assessment of China′s Port Investment Risk in Countries along"The Belt and Road"

作　　者：邵言波 于静薇 SHAO Yan-bo;YU Jing-wei(School of Economics and Management,China Jiliang University,Hangzhou Zhejiang 310018)

机构地区：[1]中国计量大学经济与管理学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《巢湖学院学报》2022年第5期56-65,共10页Journal of Chaohu University

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(项目编号:19BGJ024)。

摘　　要：为研究“一带一路”沿线国家的港口投资风险,选用2010-2019年的面板数据,从政治风险、经济风险、社会风险、对华关系及港口行业发展状况五个维度构建指标体系,基于动态因子模型对港口投资风险进行评价。结果表明:从国别角度看,投资风险最低的国家是荷兰,最高的是尼日利亚。从区域角度看,欧洲地区港口投资风险最低,非洲地区风险最高。从时间维度看,大部分沿线国家的港口投资风险都呈现降低或稳定的趋势,但澳大利亚及部分西亚地区的国家相反。未来我国企业进行海外港口投资时,应根据风险等级合理选择投资区域,并警惕疫情给中国企业造成的威胁和挑战。In order to study the port investment risk of countries along"the Belt and Road",this paper selects the panel data from 2010 to 2019 to build an index system from the five dimensions of political risk,economic risk,social risk,relations with China,and the development of the port industry,and evaluates the port investment risk based on the dynamic factor model.The results show that:From the country perspective,the country with the lowest investment risk is the Netherlands,and the highest is Nigeria.From the region perspective,the port investment risk in Europe is the lowest and that in Africa is the highest.From the time perspective,the port investment risk for most countries along the line shows a decreasing or stable trend,but the opposite is true for Australia and some countries in Western Asia.When Chinese enterprises invest in overseas ports in the future,they should reasonably select the investment area according to the risk level,and be alert to the threats and challenges brought by the epidemic to Chinese enterprises.

关 键 词：一带一路 港口投资 投资风险 动态因子模型 风险评价 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]