1961-2021年舟山群岛年降水序列变化趋势及突变分析  

Analysis on variation trend and mutation of precipitation in Zhoushan Islands from 1961 to 2021

作　　者：龚浩哲 侯婷 GONG Haozhe;HOU Ting(Dinghai Water Conservancy Bureau,Zhoushan 316001,China;Zhoushan Water Conservancy Bureau,Zhoushan 316000,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省舟山市定海区水利局,浙江舟山316001 [2]浙江省舟山市水利局,浙江舟山316000

出　　处：《水利水电快报》2022年第12期21-26,共6页Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information

摘　　要：为研究舟山群岛多年降水变化特征,选取舟山岛、金塘岛、六横岛、岱山岛、衢山岛、泗礁岛等6个较大岛屿,结合各岛屿1961-2021年的降水观测数据,分别采用去趋势预置白Mann-Kendall检验法、Pettitt法进行趋势分析和突变分析。结果表明:各岛屿的年降水量整体上均呈增长趋势,多年平均降水量空间分布呈现出自西向东、自南向北递减的规律。结果表明:舟山岛降水序列变化趋势最显著,金塘岛最不显著,除金塘岛外的其他岛屿自20世纪70年代开始年降水量均已表现出了增长趋势,其中,1993-2002年间的降水量增长趋势最为显著;突变检验结果显示各岛屿的降水序列均存在显著突变点,所有岛屿突变后的多年平均年降水量均比突变前有所增加,舟山岛增幅最大,金塘岛增幅最小。In order to study the characteristics of multi-year precipitation variation in Zhoushan Islands,this study selected the major islands of Zhoushan Island,Jintang Island,Liuheng Island,Daishan Island,Qushan Island and Sijiao Island and used Trend-Free Pre-Whitening Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt method to analyze the variation trend and mutation based on the precipitation observation data from 1961 to 2021.The results showed that the annual precipitation of all the islands presented an increasing trend,and the spatial distribution of precipitation decreased from west to east and south to north.The trend analysis results showed that Zhoushan Island has the most obvious variation trend,while Jintang Island has the least obvious variation trend and the annual precipitation of all islands except Jintang Island has shown an increasing trend since 1970s,among which,the period from 1993 to 2002 offered the most obvious increasing trend.The mutation test results showed that there were significant mutation points in the precipitation sequence of all islands,the annual average precipitation of all islands after mutation was higher than that before the mutation with the largest increase of Zhoushan Island and the smallest increase of Jintang Island.

关 键 词：降水序列 趋势变化 突变分析 Mann-Kendall检验法 Pettitt法 舟山群岛 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]