异质性要素替代弹性与中国产业结构变迁——兼论新发展格局稳增长的来源  

Heterogeneous Elasticity of Factor Substitution and China’s Industrial Structural Change:The Source of Steady Growth in the New Development Pattern

作　　者：卓玛草[1] Zhuoma Cao(College of Economics,Northwest Normal University)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学经济学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《经济科学》2022年第6期22-38,共17页Economic Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金西部项目“户籍制度、城市规模体系与城市化健康发展的关联性研究”(项目编号:2018XSH004)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本文将双层嵌套CES函数和有偏技术进步引入多部门动态一般均衡模型,从供需结构、要素结构和技术结构解释中国产业结构变迁的过程,采用NLSUR估计中国三次产业异质性替代弹性“真实”值。研究发现:相对价格效应是结构变迁的主导机制,要素再平衡效应影响非常有限;农业部门资本积累、要素替代弹性和TFP增长“三低”特征驱动其“剩余”劳动流向非农产业,工业部门呈倒U形变迁源于资本深化,服务业部门比重持续上升更多表现为“鲍莫尔成本病”。为此,本文认为有效提高要素替代弹性、提升劳动增进型技术进步增长率是促进稳增长的内在动力。We incorporate the twolevel CES production function and biased technology into the multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model,to explain the process of China’s industrial structural change from the supplydemand side,factor structure and technology structure.We estimate the true values of the heterogeneous elasticity of substitution of China’s primary,secondary and tertiary industries by using NLSUR.The research results are as follows.The relative price effect is the main mechanism for structural changes,and the factor rebalancing effect is very limited.The low level of capital accumulation,elasticity of factor substitution and TFP growth in agricultural sectors will push surplus labor to nonagricultural sectors.The inverted Ushaped change of the industrial sector is due to capital deepening,and the continuously rising share of the service sector is more reflected by Baumol’s cost disease.Therefore,this paper suggests that improving the elasticity of factor substitution and increasing the growth rate of laborenhancing technological progress are the endogenous driving forces to promote steady growth.

关 键 词：要素替代弹性 要素效率增长率 产业结构变迁 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]