长江上游支流区域洪水频率分析  

Regional flood frequency analysis in tributaries of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River

作　　者：丁启 杨汉波[2] 卢韦伟 杨媛 DING Qi;YANG Hanbo;LU Weiwei;YANG Yuan(Research Institute of Science and Technology of China Three Gorges Group Corporation,Beijing 10038,China;Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]中国长江三峡集团有限公司科学技术研究院,北京100038 [2]清华大学,北京100084 [3]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2022年第11期50-59,共10页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：“十四五”国家重点研发项目(2021YFC3000202);中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目资助(202003098);国家自然科学基金项目(U2040212);水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室自主课题(2021-KY-04)。

摘　　要：在水利水电工程的规划设计中,设计洪水的精度影响着工程的安全性和经济性。区域洪水频率分析能够提高缺资料地区的设计洪水的代表性,为工程建设提供更可靠的数据支持。基于长江上游支流流域35个水文站60 a以上的年最大洪峰流量序列,采用模糊聚类的方法进行水文相似区识别,并选取P-Ⅲ型曲线拟合洪水频率分布曲线,推求长江上游支流的区域洪水频率分布曲线和设计洪水。结果表明,将35个水文站点分为3个区域时满足均匀性检验和一致性检验,分区结果较为合理,分别是雅砻江和大渡河区域、岷江和嘉陵江的中上游区域以及岷江和嘉陵江的中下游区域。以此估计各站点的设计洪水,在0.1%、1%、5%、10%概率下与单站点拟合得到的相对误差平均值分别为12.63%、9.23%、5.76%和3.97%,表明该方法能够用于缺资料地区设计洪水的推求。In the planning and designing of hydropower projects,the precision of design flood affects the safety and economy of the project.Regional flood frequency analysis can improve the representativeness of design flood in ungauged region and provide more reliable data support for engineering construction.In this paper,we collect the annual maximum flood peak discharge series of 35 hydrological stations in tributaries of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River for more than 60 years,and use the fuzzy clustering method to carry out homogeneity zoning.We also choose the P-Ⅲcurve to fit the flood frequency distribution curve and deduce the regional flood frequency distribution curve.The results show that it is reasonable to divide the 35 hydrological stations into three regions,namely the Yalong River and Dadu River region,the middle and upper reaches of Minjiang River and Jialing River region,and the middle and lower reaches of Minjiang River and Jialing River region.The results satisfy the uniformity test and consistency test.Based on this method,the design flood of each station is estimated.Under the probability of 0.1%,1%,5%and 10%,the average relative errors obtained by fitting with a single station are 12.63%,9.23%,5.76%and 3.97%,respectively,which indicates that this method can be used to calculate the design flood in ungauged region.

关 键 词：区域洪水 频率分析 模糊聚类 水文相似性 

分 类 号：TV12[水利工程—水文学及水资源]