废弃物焚烧处理温室气体排放情景模拟与预测  

Scenario Simulation and Prediction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Incineration of Solid Waste

作　　者：严薇 刘舒乐 吴正方[2] 高庆先[1] 杜海波[2] 马占云[1] 冯鹏[3] YAN Wei;LIU Shu-le;WU Zheng-fang;GAO Qing-xian;DU Hai-bo;MA Zhan-yun;FENG Peng(State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China;Key Laboratory of Geographical Processes and Ecological Security of Changbai Mountain,Ministry of Education,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130024,China;China Resource Satellite Application Center,Beijing 100094,China)

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院,环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室,北京100012 [2]东北师范大学长白山地理过程与生态安全教育部重点实验室,长春130024 [3]中国资源卫星应用中心,北京100094

出　　处：《环境科学》2022年第12期5470-5477,共8页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1903901);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项(2021YSKY-09);环境保护政策、法规、规划及标准项目(144026000000190006)。

摘　　要：为模拟废弃物焚烧处理过程中产生的温室气体排放,积极推动温室气体减排工作,早日实现碳达峰碳中和目标.基于系统动力学和IPCC温室气体排放计算方法,构建了以基准情景(BAU)为基础,从单一和综合技术类型减排情景出发的焚烧处理温室气体排放模型,并模拟预测了2010~2050年温室气体排放量(以CO_(2e)计,CO_(2e)为CO_(2)当量)的趋势变化、减排潜力以及空间分布.结果表明:①2010~2019年我国废弃物焚烧处理温室气体排放量呈增长趋势,于2016年后显著提升,年增速为18.61%.②2020~2050年,单一技术减排情景的中端改进情景(S2)和终端减排情景(S3)温室气体排放量分别于2043年和2036年达到峰值8410万t和6966万t.综合技术减排情景相较于单一技术减排情景较早达到排放峰值,综合技术减排情景中全过程减排情景(S7)采用多种减排技术协同控制温室气体排放,2050年累积排放量为205927万t,相对BAU情景减排了78.27%,排放达峰时间最早且减排潜力最大.③焚烧处理温室气体排放空间差异显著,排放量较多的省份主要分布在人口密集且经济发达的区域,江苏和广东省排放量最多,甘肃、吉林和宁夏等6个省份为排放低值区.The aim of this study was to simulate the greenhouse gases(GHG)generated during the waste incineration process and to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality as soon as possible.Based on system dynamics and IPCC GHG emission calculation methods,GHG emission models of incineration treatment for the baseline scenario(BAU),single technology emission reduction scenarios,and integrated technology emission reduction scenarios were constructed.Additionally,the trend changes,emission reduction potential,and spatial distribution of GHG emissions(with CO_(2e) as the CO_(2) equivalent)were simulated and projected from 2010 to 2050.The results showed that:①From 2010 to 2019,GHG emissions from waste incineration showed an increasing trend,with the annual growth rate increasing to 18.61%after 2016.②In the mid-range improvement scenario(S2)and the terminal emission reduction scenario(S3)of the single technology emission reduction scenarios,GHG emissions would peak at 84.1 Mt and 69.66 Mt in 2043 and 2036,respectively.The integrated technology emission reduction scenario reached the peak of emissions earlier than the single technology emission reduction scenario.From 2020 to 2050,the total emission reduction scenario(S7)adopted a variety of emission reduction technologies to control GHG emissions,and the cumulative emission in 2050 was 2059.27 million t,which was 78.27%relative to that in the BAU scenario,with the earliest emission peaking time and the largest emission reduction potential.③The spatial variation in GHG emissions from incineration treatment was significant,and the provinces with higher emissions were mainly located in densely populated and economically developed regions.Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces had the highest emissions,and six provinces were low-value areas for emissions,including Gansu,Jilin,and Ningxia.

关 键 词：焚烧处理 温室气体排放 排放情景 碳达峰 碳中和 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]