比较历史分析方法的特征、演进和设计规则  

The Development of Comparative Historical Analysis Method:Features,Evolution and Research Design

作　　者：叶成城[1] YE Chengcheng

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院国际问题研究所,200062

出　　处：《国外社会科学前沿》2022年第12期71-86,共16页JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCES

基　　金：国家社科基金后期资助项目“早期西欧国家的构建与兴衰(1492—1848)”(21FGJB006)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：比较历史分析是社会科学中的重要方法,以相对宏大的视角来比较历史案例,对国家等行为体进行因果解释,并且逐渐重视时间性和因果机制。早在马克思、托克维尔、密尔、韦伯等思想家的著作中早已蕴含了比较历史分析的思想,但是逐渐学科化和体系化则要到20世纪70年代之后。经历了三代理论的演进,比较历史分析的研究议题从“大历史、大过程、大比较”转向中短时间段比较,研究目标从追求普遍性解释到历史制度主义和机制性解释。比较历史研究的步骤包含了问题选取、变量选择与理论设计、因素分析与因果推断、案例比较与过程追踪、检视理论可能的推广性等主要步骤。随着方法和实证研究的完善,比较历史分析也逐渐趋于成熟,研究方法也从最初相对简单地应用密尔方法到进一步复杂化和精细化。比较历史分析为研究中国历史和当代发展提供了一种重要的视角,有助于从一个全球性的视角看待中国的变化。Comparative historical analysis(CHA)is an important method in social sciences,which compares historical cases from a relatively grand perspective,makes causal explanations to countries and other agents,and emphasizes temporality and causal mechanism.CHA has appeared in the works of Marx,Tocqueville,Mill,Weber and other thinkers,but it did not become a systematic social science until the 1970s.After the evolution of three generations of theory,its research topic has shifted from“big history,big process,great comparison”to medium and short-term comparison,and its research goal has changed from the pursuit of universal interpretation to historical institutionalism and causal mechanism explanation.The steps of comparative historical research include 1)selection of research questions,2)variable selection and theoretical design,3)factor analysis and causal inference,4)case comparison and process tracing,and 5)possible generalization of the theory.With the improvement of methods and empirical research,the research methods of CHA have changed from the application of Mill method to explorer more sophisticated methods.CHA provides a global perspective for both study with the history and contemporary development of Chinese.

关 键 词：比较历史分析 研究设计 案例比较研究 时间性 因果机制 

分 类 号：G63[文化科学—教育学]