土地价格和供需变动对宏观经济影响的理论研究——基于NK-DSGE模型的分析  

Theoretical Study on the Impact of Land Price and Supply and Demand Changes on Macroeconomy——Analysis based on NK-DSGE model

作　　者：杨祥雪 常非凡 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学经济学院 [2]国家发展改革委国际合作中心

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2022年第10期97-102,213,共7页Price:Theory & Practice

摘　　要：建立有序的土地使用权出让市场并引导形成有序的土地使用权供需体系,实现稳地价、稳房价和稳预期,对于更好发挥土地使用权出让收入在地方财政的正向积极作用、优化我国收入分配结构、优化居民资产配置具有重要意义。本文通过构建新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型(NK-DSGE),对土地供需和价格变动影响宏观经济作用机理及结果进行分析,并拓展探究政府宏观调控政策下土地使用权出让相关变动的影响。结果表明:土地价格和土地供需变动会影响居民收入配置和政府财政收支,财政支出、税率和利率变动则激发了土地供需活力,从而实现积极效果的叠加。这说明维持土地价格和土地供应有序对维持宏观经济稳定具有重要意义。为此,应完善土地出让和土地出让价格分类调控方式,将地价稳定作为房价和预期稳定的“压舱石”;合理配置土地资源,健全土地要素市场化运行机制;深化土地利用计划管理方式改革,强化土地要素市场化体制机制协同保障。Establishing an orderly land use right transfer market and guiding the formation of an orderly land use right supply and demand system to stabilize land prices,house prices and expectations are of great significance to better play the positive role of land use right transfer revenue in local finance,optimize China’s income distribution structure and optimize the allocation of residents’assets.In this paper,the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model(NK-DSGE)is constructed to analyze the mechanism and results of the impact of land supply and demand and price changes on the macro-economy,and explore the impact of changes related to land use right transfer under government macro-control policies.The results show that the change of land price and land supply and demand will affect the allocation of residents’income and the government’s fiscal revenue and expenditure,and the change of fiscal expenditure,tax rate and interest rate will stimulate the vitality of land supply and demand,thus achieving the superposition of positive effects.This shows that maintaining the order of land price and land supply is of great significance for maintaining macroeconomic stability.Therefore,we should improve the way of land transfer and the classified regulation of land transfer price,and take the stability of land price as the"ballast stone"of house price and expected stability;Reasonably allocate land resources and improve the market-oriented operation mechanism of land elements;Deepen the reform of land use plan management mode,and strengthen the coordination guarantee of land factor marketization system and mechanism.

关 键 词：土地要素 土地出让价格 土地供需 财政收入 新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济] F124