生育政策放松对中国城镇女性收入的影响  

The Impact of Fertility Policy Relaxation on Women’s Income in Urban China

作　　者：黄乾[1] 晋晓飞 Huang Qian;Jin Xiaofei(Institute of Population and Development,School of Economics,Nankai University;School of Economics,Nankai University)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院人口与发展研究所,天津300071 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《人口研究》2022年第6期103-116,共14页Population Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“全面二孩政策对老年人健康的影响、作用机制与社会支持政策模拟”(72074128);天津市教委社科重大项目“新时期人口政策变动下天津基础教育资源配置和服务水平提升研究”(2019JWZD19)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：中国分别于2013年和2016年正式实施单独二孩和全面两孩政策,生育政策放松意义深远且对女性影响巨大。在劳动力市场中,收入是测度劳动力市场表现和就业质量的重要指标,女性通过就业获得收入,生育政策放松是否严重影响城镇女性的收入引发了社会的深切关注。借助交叠双重差分模型,利用2012年、2014年、2016年和2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据,评估生育政策放松对中国城镇女性平均月收入和平均小时收入的影响。研究发现,生育政策放松导致中国城镇女性平均月收入显著下降12.36%,平均小时收入显著下降11.37%;两孩政策对25岁及以下或尚未生育女性收入的负面影响尤为明显,表明生育政策放松加剧了劳动力市场的性别歧视,特别是统计性歧视。China officially implemented the selective two-child policy and the universal two-child policy in 2013 and 2016,respectively.Fertility policy relaxation has far-reaching impacts on women in urban China.In the labor market,income is an essential indicator of labor market performance and employment quality,and women are paid for their labor through employment.With the staggered difference-in-difference(DID)model,the impact of fertility policy relaxation on the average monthly and hourly earnings of urban women in China is assessed using data from 2012,2014,2016,and 2018 China Family Panel Studies.We find that the two-child policy leads to a significant decrease of 12.36%in women’s average monthly income and 11.37%reduction in average hourly earnings;the negative influence on income of women below 25 or those with no children is most pronounced,which suggests that the relaxation of fertility policy has exacerbated gender discrimination in the labor market,especially statistical discrimination.

关 键 词：两孩政策 城镇女性收入 统计性歧视 交叠双重差分模型 

分 类 号：D669.68[政治法律—政治学] C924.21[政治法律—中外政治制度] F249.24[社会学—人口学]