基于统计模型的西江枯季中长期径流预报研究  

Research on Medium and Long-Term Runoff Forecast of Xijiang River in Dry Season Based on Statistical Model

作　　者：蓝羽栖 张尹 农振昌 韦永江 LAN Yuxi;ZHANG Yin;NONG Zhenchang;WEI Yongjiang(Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Pearl River Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources,Guangzhou 510611,China;Longtan Hydropower Plant of Longtan Hydropower Development Co.,Ltd,Hechi 547300,China)

机构地区：[1]水利部珠江水利委员会水文局,广东广州510611 [2]龙滩水电开发有限公司龙滩水力发电厂,广西河池547300

出　　处：《人民珠江》2022年第12期55-60,共6页Pearl River

摘　　要：准确的中长期径流预报对水资源开发利用、优化配置和水量调度具有重要指导意义。基于均生函数、周期分析和多元逐步回归3种统计模型,进行西江上游龙滩水库、下游梧州水文站当年10月至次年3月各月以及整个枯水期(当年10月至次年3月共6个月)的中长期径流预报研究。结果表明,3种模型均呈现了较好的预报效果,率定期和验证期平均合格率均在75%以上,平均绝对百分比误差基本在30%以内。均生函数和多元逐步回归的预报精度明显高于周期分析,在较大值的预报上误差更小。多元逐步回归相比其他2个模型稳定性更强。而受资料一致性影响,上游龙滩水库的预报精度明显高于下游梧州站。综合来看,多元逐步回归在西江流域的预报效果最佳,在各个量级、各个阶段都能保证较高的预报精度,能够为流域水量调度决策提供更高的参考价值。下一步,可采用多模型融合的方式,以进一步提高预报效果。Accurate medium and long-term runoff forecast is of great guiding significance to the development and utilization of water resources,allocation optimization,and water dispatch.Based on the three statistical models of mean generating function,periodic analysis,and multiple stepwise regression,this paper studied the medium and long-term runoff forecast of the Longtan Reservoir in the upper reaches of the Xijiang River and the Wuzhou hydrological station in the lower reaches from October to March of the following year and during the entire dry season(six months,from October to March of the following year).The results show that the three models all present positive forecast results.In the calibration and verification periods,the average pass rate exceeds 75%,and the mean absolute percentage error is basically within 30%.The forecast accuracy of the mean generating function and the multiple stepwise regression is significantly higher than that of the periodic analysis,with smaller forecast errors in larger values.Multiple stepwise regression is more stable than the other two models.Furthermore,affected by the consistency of data,the forecast accuracy of the Longtan Reservoir is significantly higher than that of the Wuzhou hydrological station.On the whole,multiple stepwise regression has the optimal forecast effect in the Xijiang River Basin.In addition,it can maintain high forecast accuracy at all levels and stages and provide a valuable reference for water dispatch decisions in the basin.In the future,multi-model fusion can be used to further improve the forecast effect.

关 键 词：均生函数 周期分析 多元逐步回归 中长期径流预报 西江 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]