生育率与经济发展——基于分位数回归的实证研究  

Fertility Rate and Economic Development——An Empirical Study Based on Quantile Regression

作　　者：喻胜华[1] 赵盼 YU Sheng-hua;ZHAO Pan(School of Economics and Trade,Hunan University,Changsha 410079,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《湖南大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第1期58-65,共8页Journal of Hunan University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会课题:基于复杂数据的分位数回归方法及其应用研究(XSP20YBZ184)。

摘　　要：选取全球150个国家(或地区)的数据,采用两种不同的分类方法,将样本划分为7个不同的子样本,基于分位数回归方法探究生育率与经济发展之间的关系。实证结果表明,只有当经济发展达到一定水平时,生育率与经济发展之间才会出现反向“J”型关系,这种关系不仅与经济发展水平相关,也与生育率水平相关。反向“J”型模式中的斜率虽然为正,但斜率较小。The data of 150 countries(or regions)in the world were selected,and the samples were divided into 7 different subsamples by two different classification methods.The relationship between fertility rate and economic development was explored based on the quantile regression method.The empirical results show that only when the economic development reaches a certain level,there will be a reverse“J-shaped”relationship between fertility rate and economic development,which is not only related to the level of economic development,but also to the level of fertility rate.In the reverse“J”pattern,the slope is positive but small.

关 键 词：生育率 经济发展 反向“J”型关系 分位数回归 

分 类 号：F063.4[经济管理—政治经济学]