新常态下经济增长、国际贸易对人民币国际化的影响研究  

Research on the Infl uence of Economic Growth and International Trade on RMB Internationalization under the New Normal Economy

作　　者：王瑞[1] 朱冰瑞 苏克勤[1] 王亚伟[1] 翟振杰[1] WANG Rui;ZHU Bingrui;SU Keqin;WANG Yawei;ZHAI Zhenjie(College of Information and Management Science,Henan Agricultural University Zhengzhou,Henan 450046;College of International Education,Henan Agricultural University Zhengzhou,Henan 450046)

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学信息与管理科学学院,河南郑州450046 [2]河南农业大学国际教育学院,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《中国商论》2023年第1期1-7,共7页China Journal of Commerce

基　　金：河南省高校人文社会科学研究一般项目“河南省农村中小型金融机构信贷风险的度量与控制研究”(2021-ZZJH-155);河南省高校大学生创新创业训练计划项目“基于农业供应链金融的中小银行信贷模式和风险研究”(S202010466073);河南农业大学教学工程项目:数字经济时代下金融数学专业人才培养模式的研究与实践。

摘　　要：在经济可持续稳增长的新常态下,我国综合国力保持不断提高,在世界政治经济领域的影响力越来越大,人民币国际化政策的出台不断加快我国货币国际化进程。针对国内生产总值、全国进出口贸易总额和人民币环球指数,本文主要选取2016—2020年季度数据进行实证分析,通过单位根、格兰杰因果检验建立VAR模型,利用脉冲响应和方差分解分析得到国内生产总值、进出口贸易总额和人民币环球指数具有长期稳定关系。结果显示:经济增长、国际贸易对人民币国际化具有积极的正向推动作用,且国内生产总值对人民币环球指数的贡献度强于进出口贸易额,针对我国经济发展与贸易现状提出建议,以期推动经济增长、国际贸易同人民币国际化持续向好发展。Under the new normal of sustainable and steady economic growth,China’s overall national strength is continuously enforced,and China’s influence in the world political and economic field is becoming stronger and stronger,the introduction of RMB internationalization policies constantly accelerate the process of Chinese currency internationalization.Based on the GDP,the total volume of national import and export trade and the global index of RMB,this paper mainly selects the quarterly data from 2016 to 2020 for empirical analysis.Through unit root,Granger causality test,VAR model is established,and with the impulse response and variance decomposition analysis,this paper verifi es the GDP,import and export trade and the global index of RMB has a long-term and stable relationship.The results show that economic growth and international trade both play a positive role in promoting the internationalization of RMB,and GDP contributes more to the global index of RMB than the import and export volume does.Finally,this paper puts forward some suggestions on the state of the economy and trade in order to promote the sustainable development of economic growth,international trade and RMB internationalization.

关 键 词：人民币国际化 经济发展 国际贸易 国内生产总值 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]