基于运行监测数据的城市公共交通供需失衡识别模型  

Urban Public Transport Supply-Demand Imbalance Identification Model Based on Operation Monitoring Data

作　　者：李翔 杨佩云 邹歆[1] 蔡润林[1] Li Xiang;Yang Peiyun;Zou Xin;Cai Runlin

机构地区：[1]中国城市规划设计研究院

出　　处：《交通与港航》2022年第6期79-85,共7页Communication & Shipping

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目2019YFB1600300(城市智慧出行服务系统技术集成应用)。

摘　　要：随着社会经济和城镇化的高速发展,多方式交通系统开始在城市交通中崭露头角。然而目前多方式交通系统下城市出行结构优化研究成果匮乏,各种出行方式之间缺乏协同、各成体系,且对于交通供需失衡的研究集中在宏观的供需关系方面。该研究融合多方式运行状态信息和交通出行需求预测信息,研究搭建了多方式运行状态交通供需综合评价指标体系,基于出行本征数据集使用AHP-模糊综合评价方法定量分析研究单元的供需失衡程度。该研究创新性地对细分的交通单元进行微观层面的分析,为管理者开发综合交通资源智能协同调度系统,实现交通运行状态精准感知奠定理论基础,提升出行资源及路网资源利用效率。With the rapid development of social economy and urbanization,multi-mode transportation system starts to emerge in urban transportation.However,at present,the research results of urban travel structure optimization under the multi-mode transportation system are scarce,and there is a lack of coordination and system among various travel modes,and the research on the imbalance of traffic supply and demand focuses on the macro supply-demand relationship.This study integrated multi-mode operating state information and traffic travel demand prediction information to build a comprehensive evaluation index system of traffic supply and demand in multi-mode operating state.Based on the travel data set,the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to quantitatively analyze the degree of supply-demand imbalance in the research unit.This study innovatively analyzes subdivided traffic units at the micro level,which lays a theoretical foundation for managers to develop intelligent cooperative scheduling system of integrated traffic resources,realize accurate perception of traffic operation status,and improve the utilization efficiency of travel resources and road network resources.

关 键 词：交通供需失衡单元 层次分析法 模糊综合评价 综合评价指标体系 

分 类 号：U491.17[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]