1972-2016年江苏省启东市结直肠癌生存率长期趋势分析  

Long-term trend of colorectal cancer survival rate in Qidong, 1972-2016

作　　者：蒋明博 陈永胜 王军 徐源佑 丁璐璐 张永辉 陈建国 朱健 Jiang Mingbo;Chen Yongsheng;Wang Jun;Xu Yuanyou;Ding Lulu;Zhang Yonghui;Chen Jianguo;Zhu Jian(Department of Etiology,Qidong People′s Hospital,Qidong Liver Cancer Institute,Affiliated Qidong Hospital of Nantong University,Qidong 226200,China)

机构地区：[1]启东市人民医院启东肝癌防治研究所南通大学附属启东医院病因室,启东226200

出　　处：《中华肿瘤杂志》2022年第12期1357-1361,共5页Chinese Journal of Oncology

基　　金：南通市科技计划项目 (JCZ2022050)。

摘　　要：目的分析1972—2016年江苏省启东市结直肠癌患者的生存情况,为结直肠癌患者预后评价和防控措施制定提供依据。方法结直肠癌患者资料来源于启东市肿瘤登记报告系统,随访截至2021年12月31日。采用SURV 3.01软件计算观察生存率(OSR)和相对生存率(RSR),Hakulinen氏似然比检验法进行趋势检验。采用Joinpoint回归模型计算生存率平均年度变化百分比(AAPC),ARIMA模型预测结直肠癌生存率趋势。结果1972—2016年启东市结直肠癌新发病例共8637例。将1972—2016年分为9个时期,与1972—1976年相比,2012—2016年的5年OSR从21.86%上升至48.86%,5年RSR从26.45%上升至59.91%,9个时期的RSR上升趋势有统计学意义(χ^(2)=587.47,P<0.001)。1972—2016年启东市不同性别结直肠癌生存率相近,男性5年RSR为44.63%,女性为44.07%。20世纪90年代起,男性5年OSR和RSR开始低于女性。1972—2016年启东市结直肠癌5年RSR在65~74岁和≥75岁组均有较大提升,但≥75岁组生存率仍最低(36.78%),其次为35~44岁组(43.04%)。时间趋势结果显示,1972—2016年启东市结直肠癌5年RSR的总体AAPC为2.50%(t=16.45,P<0.001),不同性别上升趋势一致,女性提升更大(男性AAPC=2.18%,女性AAPC=2.54%,均P<0.05)。各年龄组结直肠癌5年RSR均呈上升趋势,35~44岁、45~54岁、55~64岁、65~74岁和≥75岁组的AAPC分别为1.54%、1.83%、2.00%、3.51%和4.35%(均P<0.05)。结直肠癌生存率预测结果显示,2026年启东市结直肠癌患者5年RSR将提升至71.62%。结论启东市结直肠癌患者总体生存率有了较大提高,但仍有上升空间,应当继续重视结直肠癌早诊早治。Objective The survival of colorectal cancer in Qidong City,Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2016 was analyzed to provide a basis for the evaluation of prognosis and the formulation of prevention and control measures.Methods Colorectal cancer data were obtained from the Qidong Cancer Registration and Reporting System,and the follow-up was up to December 31,2021.The observed survival rate(OSR)and relative survival rate(RSR)were calculated by SURV 3.01 software,and the trend test was performed by Hakulinen's likelihood ratio test.The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC)of survival,and the ARIMA model was used to predict the trend of colorectal cancer survival.Results There were 8637 new cases of colorectal cancer in Qidong from 1972 to 2016.Dividing 1972-2016 into 9 periods at 5-year intervals,the 5-year OSR from 1972-1976 to 2012-2016 increased from 21.86%to 48.86%,and the 5-year RSR increased from 26.45%to 59.91%.The increasing trend of RSR was statistically significant(χ^(2)=587.47,P<0.001).From 1972 to 2016,the survival rates of colorectal cancer in different sexes in Qidong were similar,and the 5-year RSR was 44.63%for men and 44.07%for women.Since the 1990s,the 5-year OSR and RSR for men have been lower than those for women.From 1972 to 2016,the 5-year RSR of colorectal cancer in Qidong was significantly improved in the 65-74 and≥75-year-old groups,but the survival rate of the≥75-year-old group was still the lowest(36.78%),followed by the 35-44-year-old group(43.04%).The time trend showed that the overall AAPC of colorectal cancer 5-year RSR in Qidong from 1972 to 2016 was 2.50%(t=16.45,P<0.001).The upward trend of different sexes was consistent,and the increase was greater in women(AAPC for males=2.18%,AAPC for females=2.54%,both P<0.05).The 5-year RSR of colorectal cancer in each age group showed an upward trend,and the AAPCs of the 35-44,45-54,55-64,65-74,and≥75-year-old groups were 1.54%,1.83%,2.00%,3.51%and 4.35%,respectively(all P<0.05).The predi

关 键 词：结直肠肿瘤 肿瘤登记 生存率 趋势 启东 

分 类 号：R735.34[医药卫生—肿瘤]