盲肠癌预后危险因素分析及预测模型的建立  

Analysis of prognostic risk factors and establishment of prediction model for cecum cancer

作　　者：钱博 樊圣杰 胡凤丽[1] QIAN Bo;FAN Shengjie;HU Fengli(Department of Gastroenterology,the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University,Harbin 150000,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨医科大学附属第四医院消化内科,黑龙江哈尔滨150000

出　　处：《胃肠病学和肝病学杂志》2022年第11期1271-1277,共7页Chinese Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology

摘　　要：目的分析影响盲肠癌预后的影响因素并建立盲肠癌预测模型,同时加以验证以评估盲肠癌的预后。方法收集美国监测、流行病学和最终结果数据库(SEER)2010年至2015年诊断的盲肠癌患者19346例,利用R软件按7∶3将其分为训练集和验证集。通过建立Cox回归模型筛选影响盲肠癌预后的独立影响因素,并将独立影响因素纳入列线图同时利用一致性指数(C-index)和校准曲线进行验证。结果年龄、病理分级、T分期、N分期、M分期、肿瘤大小、婚姻状态、手术情况、放疗、化疗均是影响盲肠癌的独立危险因素(P<0.05),将以上因素纳入列线图同时加以验证,训练集C-index为0.780(95%CI:0.765~0.794),验证集C-index为0.781(95%CI:0.759~0.802),且验证曲线具有较好的一致性。结论构建列线图对盲肠癌具有较高的预测价值。Objective To analyze the factors influencing the prognosis of cecum cancer and establish a nomogram to evaluate the prognosis of cecum cancer.Methods 19 346 patients with cecum cancer were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Database(SEER) in the United States from 2010 to 2015. The data were divided into training set and validation set by R software at 7∶3. The Cox regression model was established to screen the independent factors influencing the prognosis of cecum cancer, and the independent factors were included in the nomogram and verified by the consistency index(C-index) and calibration curve.Results Age, grade, T stage, N stage, M stage, tumor size, marital status, surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy were all independent risk factors(P<0.05). The above factors were included in the nomogram and verified. The C-index of training set was 0.780(95% CI: 0.765-0.794), and the C-index of the validation set was 0.781(95% CI: 0.759-0.802), the result showed that the curves were consistent.Conclusion The construction of the nomogram has a high predictive value for cecum cancer.

关 键 词：盲肠癌 危险因素 列线图 

分 类 号：R735.3[医药卫生—肿瘤]