投资者重视管理者的前瞻性吗?——基于年报文本分析的经验证据  

Forward-looking statement and value of cash holding: The empirical evidence based on text mining of annual report

作　　者：田高良[1] 薛宇婷 李星[1] 刘扬 TIAN Gaoliang;XUE Yuting;LI Xing;LIU Yang(School of Management,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049,China;School of Business,City University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院,陕西西安710049 [2]香港城市大学商学院,中国香港特别行政区

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2023年第1期225-236,共12页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71672141)。

摘　　要：本文以上市公司2007—2018年年度财务报告中管理层讨论与分析部分为对象,研究了信息披露的前瞻性对公司现金持有价值的影响。结果发现,前瞻性信息披露水平与公司现金持有价值呈正相关关系,即投资者愿意为前瞻性更高的管理者手中持有的现金赋予更高的价值。这一结论在一系列稳健性检验中均成立。进一步,本文发现信息披露的前瞻性对现金持有价值的影响在该信息更有用或真实性更高时更显著。本文的发现有助于揭示信息披露的前瞻性对投资者决策的影响,肯定了投资者对公司文本信息披露的重视。研究结论对管理者和监管机构而言均具有一定现实意义。Information disclosure is an important tool to guide capital market price formation and reduce market friction. Numerous accounting and finance studies have found that investors tend to infer a company’s future cash-flow position based on the accounting information it discloses, demonstrating the usefulness of accounting information in decision-making. However, quantitative accounting information is more often a summary of a company’s past operating performance and is often constrained by standards. In contrast, qualitative textual information disclosure in annual reports has more flexibility, and managers can better communicate forward-looking information(e.g. views on the future development of the industry and the company’s business plans) with investors through qualitative disclosure, thus guiding investors’ decisions. Therefore, it is important for both managers and regulators to study investors’ reactions to qualitative disclosures. Given that the value of a company is formed based on investors’ inferences about its future cash-flow level, this paper examines whether forward-looking information disclosed by managers is perceived by investors and influences their investment decisions.The usefulness of forward-looking information has been studied by domestic and foreign scholars from the perspectives of market reactions, earnings forecasts, and risk assessments;however, few studies have explored whether investors value forward-looking information disclosures of companies from the perspective of the value of cash holdings. This paper fills that gap. The reason for choosing the value of cash holdings perspective is that cash assets are the most liquid assets of a company and are strategically important to the daily operations and future development of the business. Adequate cash reserves help managers to better grasp investment opportunities and create value for the company. Therefore, the value of cash holdings not only reflects the value and efficiency of cash assets in the development of a company

关 键 词：前瞻性信息披露 管理层讨论与分析 现金持有价值 

分 类 号：F275.5[经济管理—企业管理] F832.5[经济管理—国民经济]