基于前馈控制和未来学导向的主动安全系统  

Active Safety System Based on Feedforward Control and Futurology

作　　者：阎耀军[1] 王桂芳 赵丽琴 赵雪莲 朱吉宁 YAN Yaojun;WANG Guifang;ZHAO Liqin;ZHAO Xuelian;ZHU Jining

机构地区：[1]天津工业大学公共危机管理研究所,天津300387 [2]亚兴安全科技公司,黑龙江大庆163000 [3]石家庄学院理学院,河北石家庄050035 [4]西门子(中国)有限公司艾闻达事业部,北京100015

出　　处：《深圳社会科学》2023年第1期93-105,114,共14页Social Sciences in Shenzhen

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“大规模突发公共卫生事件情境下衍生社会风险的预警与防控研究”(20BGL250)。

摘　　要：近年来“主动安全”作为一个发轫于汽车制造领域的专有名词,逐渐突破其狭窄的技术用语空间,开始走向广泛的社会安全领域。这在令人赞许的同时亦令人忧虑的是:主动安全这个概念在跨界移植中,出现了定义认知和使用上不容忽视的混乱现象,这显然不利于主动安全在广泛的社会安全领域符合逻辑的展开。本文从主动安全的价值取向入手,分析了主动安全与前馈控制及未来学,在共同的防患于未然理念下的安全文化脉络,并基于前馈控制理论,以未来学为跨学科视野,以现代可实操技术基本含义为核心,对主动安全这个概念提出了适用于更广泛安全领域的新定义。与此同时,针对社会运动不同于机械运动的特点,结合智慧城市建设的大趋势,在现有社区智治平台的基础上,突出强调利用社会安全膜和社会仿真等一系列新型技术工具,来提升数字化社区预测、预警、预控能力,从而实现主动安全的构想。社会治理领域的社区主动安全系统构建,主要由社区主动安全系统概念模型、社区主动安全系统功能模型和社区主动安全系统部署架构三部分组成。其中以社区主动安全系统功能模型中的“风险拒止技术工具箱”和“仿真推演技术工具箱”两个开放的主动安全技术工具箱为特色和创新点。In recent years, as a term originated in the field of automobile manufacturing, “active safety”has gradually broken through its narrow technical field and started to be applied to the field of social safety.However, it is worrying that when active safety is applied in other fields, there is a non-negligible confusion in its definition, cognition and use, which is obviously not conducive to its promotion and application in the field of social safety. Therefore, this paper starts with the value orientation of active safety, analyzes the safety culture which is dominated by the idea of preventing accidents, and puts forward a new definition of active safety in the field of social safety on the basis of feedforward control theory, futurology and modern practical technology. Meanwhile, with the vigorous development of intelligent city construction, this paper puts forward the idea of using a series of new technological tools, such as social-film and social simulation,to improve the prediction, early warning and pre-control ability of digital communities on the basis of the existing community intelligent governance platform, so as to realize active safety. The community active safety system in the field of community governance mainly consists of three parts: system concept model,system function model and system deployment architecture. Among them, two kinds of open safety technologies are proposed in the system function model, “risk prevention technology toolbox” and “simulation deduction technology toolbox”, which are the characteristics and innovation of this paper.

关 键 词：前馈控制 未来学 主动安全 安全文化 社会智治 数字化社区 系统设计 

分 类 号：X915.2[环境科学与工程—安全科学]