黄土高原半干旱区马铃薯产量对气候变化的响应  

Response of potato yield to climate change insemi-arid region of the Loess Plateau

作　　者：齐月[1] 赵鸿[1] 雷俊[1] 王丽娟[1] 芦亚玲[1] 赵福年[1] 杨阳 陈斐[1] QI Yue;ZHAO Hong;LEI Jun;WANG Lijuan;LU Yaling;ZHAO Funian;YANG Yang;CHEN Fei(Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province,China Meteorological Administration,Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Lanzhou,Gansu 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2023年第1期193-200,220,共9页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(42175192,642230611,52105131,41975151);甘肃省青年基金项目(20JR10RA451)。

摘　　要：为探讨气候变化背景下,黄土高原半干旱区马铃薯生育期气象要素的变化规律及其对马铃薯生长发育的影响,本研究基于黄土高原半干旱区定位观测试验,结合气象要素观测资料,研究了半干旱区马铃薯产量对气候变化的响应。结果表明,1960—2020年61 a间,马铃薯生育期气温和积温显著升高,气候倾向率分别为0.32℃·10a^(-1)和48.14℃·10a^(-1)(P<0.01);降水量波动减少,气候倾向率为3.97 mm·10a^(-1)(P<0.05);日照时数显著减少,气候倾向率为10.92 h·10a^(-1)(P<0.05)。但2005—2020年16 a间,马铃薯生育期气温显著下降,气候倾向率为-0.54℃·10a^(-1)(P<0.01),各生育时期气温均呈下降趋势,其中块茎膨大~成熟期气温下降最明显,气候倾向率为-1.18℃·10a^(-1),通过0.01水平显著性检验;马铃薯生育期降水量增加显著,气候倾向率为13.89 mm·10a^(-1)(P<0.01),各生育时期降水量变化不同,播种~出苗和块茎形成期降水量呈显著减少趋势,气候倾向率为12.32 mm·10a^(-1),出苗~分枝期和块茎膨大~成熟期降水量呈显著减少趋势,气候倾向率为11.22 mm·10a^(-1)和35.26 mm·10a^(-1)。近16 a来,马铃薯生长日数延长、产量下降,产量与全生育期气温、块茎膨大~成熟期气温和积温呈显著负相关(P<0.05),产量与降水量呈极显著正相关(P<0.01),马铃薯生育期适宜降水量阈值为315.7 mm。马铃薯生育期气温及降水量、块茎形成期降水量和播种~出苗降水量是影响马铃薯产量的关键因子。该研究可为黄土高原半干旱区马铃薯种植应对气候变化及产业健康发展提供重要参考。This study investigated the response of potato yields to climate change in semi-arid areas of the Loess Plateau based on observing potato positioning experiments and data of climate factors.The results showed that the temperature and cumulus temperature increased significantly,with climatic tendencies of 0.32℃·10a^(-1) and 48.14℃·10a^(-1)(P<0.01),respectively.Precipitation fluctuated less with a climatic tendency of 3.97 mm·10a^(-1)(P<0.05).The sunshine hours decreased significantly with a climatic tendency of 10.92 h·10a^(-1)(P<0.05)in potato growth period during 1960—2020(61 a).However,the temperatures decreased significantly,with a climatic tendency rate of-0.54℃·10a^(-1)(P<0.01).The trend of decreasing temperature was observed in all reproductive periods with the most obvious decrease in temperature from tuber expansion to maturity at a climatic tendency rate of-1.18℃·10a^(-1),passing the significance test at 0.01 level in potato growth period during 2005—2020(16 a).Precipitation increased during the potato growth period at a climatic tendency rate of 13.89 mm·10a^(-1)(P<0.01).Different growth periods had a significant decrease in precipitation during sowing to seedling and tuber formation periods with a climatic tendency rate of 12.32 mm·10a^(-1).For almost 16 a,the potato growth days were extended and yield decreased.Yield was significantly negatively correlated(P<0.05)with temperature of potato growth period,temperature from tuber expansion to maturity,and cumulative temperature.Yield was highly significantly positively correlated(P<0.01)with precipitation and precipitation threshold of 315.7 mm during the potato growth period.Temperature and precipitation during potato growth period,precipitation during tuber formation,and precipitation from sowing to seedling emergence were key factors affecting potato yield.The study could provide an important reference for potatoes in the semi-arid zone of the Loess Plateau to cope with climate change and promote healthy development of the industry.

关 键 词：气候变化 马铃薯 产量 气温 降水量 黄土高原 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学] S532[农业科学—农业基础科学]