区域科技人才流失风险预警机制研究  

Research on Risk Early Warning Mechanism of Regional Scientific and Technological Talents Loss

作　　者：徐茜[1] 崔霞 罗文卿[1] XU Qian;CUI Xia;LUO Wenqing(School of Business Management,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学工商管理学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《经济与管理评论》2023年第1期30-41,共12页Review of Economy and Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“区域科技人才流动形成机理及区域创新效应研究”(18YJA630122);山东省社会科学规划重点研究项目“新旧动能转换背景下山东省创意人才支撑文化产业发展研究”(19BJCJ132019);山东省社会科学规划优势学科项目“‘中国制造2025’背景下山东省人才协调适配制度评价与人才开发研究”(19BYSJ15)。

摘　　要：研究区域科技人才流失风险的影响因素,建立灵敏的预警机制,对地区及时、准确地对科技人才流失风险进行监控、临界警报以及化解排警具有重要的理论和现实意义。从区域工资收入体系、区域科技要素体系、区域科技服务体系和区域外部保障体系四个方面建立区域科技人才流失风险预警指标体系,并依据19个城市2019年和2020年的相关数据,运用BP神经网络方法建立风险预警模型。在MATLAB环境下,对预警模型进行训练,对模型的预警精度进行检测,结果表明预警模型的总体预测精度较高,可以用于区域科技人才流失风险的预警。最后,对预警模型进行了实例应用,运用城市X 2020年的指标数据,对其2021年科技人才流失风险进行预警,并指出风险状态和风险的主要来源。To study the influencing factors of regional scientific and technological talents loss risk and to establish a sensitive early warning mechanism have important practical and theoretical value for regions to supervise, warn and resolve scientific and technological talents loss risk accurately and timely. In this paper, the risk of regional scientific and technological talents loss is identified from four aspects of the regional wage income system, the regional science and technology element system, the regional science and technology service system and the regional external security system, and the risk early warning model is built by using BP neural network method based on the relevant data of 19 cities in 2019 and 2020. In MATLAB environment, the early warning model is trained and the warning accuracy of the model is tested, and the result shows that the overall early warning accuracy is high and the model can be used for the early warning of regional scientific and technological talents loss risk. Finally, the warning model is applied to a case study. Using the index data of the city X in 2020, the risk of the scientific and technological talents loss in 2021 of city X is early warned, and the risk state and the main source of risk are pointed out.

关 键 词：区域科技人才 流失风险 风险预警 BP神经网络 

分 类 号：F203.9[经济管理—国民经济]