心理学视野下的社会变迁研究:研究设计与分析方法  

Examining societal change from the perspective of psychology:Research design and analytic techniques

作　　者：蔡华俭[1,2] 张明杨 包寒吴霜 朱慧珺 杨紫嫣 程曦 黄梓航 王梓西 CAI Huajian;ZHANG Mingyang;BAO Han-Wu-Shuang;ZHU Huijun;YANG Ziyan;CHENG Xi;HUANG Zihang;WANG Zixi(CAS Key Laboratory of Behavioral Science,Institute of Psychology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Department of Psychology,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School of Journalism and Communication,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Centre for Mental Health Education,Chengdu University,Chengdu 611730,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院心理研究所行为科学重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学心理学系,北京100049 [3]清华大学新闻与传播学院,北京100084 [4]成都大学心理健康教育中心,成都611730

出　　处：《心理科学进展》2023年第2期159-172,共14页Advances in Psychological Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国社会变迁过程中的文化与心理变化”(17ZDA324);中国科学院心理所项目“文化变迁与社会适应:行为和影像学的研究”(E2CX3935CX)资助。

摘　　要：近年来,社会变迁导致的文化、心理与行为变化及其相互建构已经成为心理学的研究热点。社会变迁研究通常涉及和变迁相关的时间效应、时代效应以及和变迁无关的年龄效应。在考察变迁趋势及其影响因素时,常用的研究设计有跨时间比较、跨代际比较、跨地区比较(历史重构)等方法;常用的分析方法有传统的相关和回归分析和现代的时间序列分析(比如交叉滞后相关和格兰杰因果检验)等。由于每一种设计都有其优点和不足,在具体研究中,研究者要根据研究的问题和可操作性选择合适的方法;如果可能,最好同时采用多种方法,以寻求基于不同方法的聚合证据。In recent years,impacts of social change on human culture and psychology have become a cutting-edge research area in psychology.This research often implicates three effects:time or period effect,cohort or generation effect,and age or maturation effect,among which the former two are related to societal change,whereas the last one usually constitutes a confounder.In examining cultural and psychological changes as well as their sources,widely used research designs include cross-temporal comparison,cross-generational comparison,and cross-regional comparison(or historical reconstruction);and widely used statistic methods include traditional correlation and regression analyses and modern time series analyses(e.g.,cross-lagged correlation analysis,Granger causality test).Since each design has specific pros and cons,researchers need to choose suitable design in terms of research question and data availability.If possible,it is highly recommended to pursue convergent evidence by conducting multiple studies with multiple research designs.

关 键 词：社会变迁 文化变迁 时间序列分析 格兰杰因果检验 年龄效应 时间效应 时代效应 

分 类 号：B849[哲学宗教—应用心理学] C91[哲学宗教—心理学]