滑坡运动距离预测的统计模型及其改进  

The Statistical Model for the Movement Distance Forecast of the Landslide and its Improvement

作　　者：刘红岩[1] 阎锡东 张小趁[3] 陈红旗 张光雄 邹宗山 LIU Hongyan;YAN Xidong;ZHANG Xiaochen;CHEN Hongqi;ZHANG Guangxiong;ZOU Zongshan(School of Engineering and Technology,China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;China Highway Engineering Consulting Group,Beijing 100089,China;School of Safety Engineering,North China Institute of Science and Technology,Beijing 101601,China;Geological Disaster Emergency Technical Guidance Center of MNR,Beijing 100081,China;Poly Explosive Hami Co.,Ltd.,Hami 839200,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)工程技术学院,北京100083 [2]中国公路工程咨询集团有限公司,北京100089 [3]华北科技学院安全工程学院,北京101601 [4]自然资源部地质灾害应急技术指导中心,北京100081 [5]保利民爆哈密有限公司,新疆哈密839200

出　　处：《灾害学》2022年第4期6-10,17,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2019YFC1509701);哈密市科技计划项目(hm2021kj08);国家级地质灾害应急防治项目(2022)。

摘　　要：滑坡运动距离是评价滑坡致灾范围的一个重要指标,因此其预测方法一直备受关注。该文通过对前人研究现状的深入剖析,发现滑坡势能是影响运动距离的一个重要因素,由此将滑坡分为低位滑坡和高位滑坡。从目前运动距离预测的统计得出低位滑坡的运动距离主要与滑体体积V、滑坡坡角α和滑坡体原始高差H_(s)有关;而高位滑坡的运动距离同时还在很大程度上受沿程地形坡度、滑坡体滑动前后最大高差H等因素的影响。最后以汶川地震诱发的38个沟谷型滑坡-碎屑流为案例,在已有模型的基础上引入H的影响,进而采用origin9.0软件进行多元回归分析得到了同时考虑V、H_(s)、H及地形坡度等多变量的运动距离预测统计模型。通过对比发现改进后的统计模型能有效提高计算精度,这说明在高位滑坡的运动距离预测统计模型中应同时考虑H的影响。该研究将有助于进一步优化滑坡运动距离预测的统计模型,进而为滑坡灾害评估和防治提供可靠依据。The movement distance of a landslide is an important designation to evaluate the scope of the landslide hazard,therefore its forecast method is always being concerned.First of all,the existing studies is deeply analyzed,and it is found that the potential energy a landslide is an important factor affecting the movement distance,therefore a landslide can be classified into a low position landslide and a high position one.From the existing statistical models for the movement distance forecast,it is found that the movement distance of the low position landslide is mainly relevant to the volume V,dip angleαand the original altitude difference Hs of the landslide.However,the movement distance of the high position landslide is also affected by the topographic slope along the movement distance and the maximum altitude difference H of the landslide before and after sliding.Finally,38 gully-type rock avalanches induced by Wenchuan earthquake is taken for cases,and the effect of H is introduced into the existing model.Therefore,The statistical model for the movement distance forecast of a landslide is obtained which can take into consideration V,Hs,H and the topographic slope at the same time by making the multivariate regression analysis with origin9.0 software.By comparison,it is found that the proposed model can effectively improve the computational accuracy.It is indicateed that the statistical model for the movement distance forecast of the high position landslide should take into consideration the effect of H.This study is helpful to further optimize the statistical model for the movement distance forecast of a landslide,and provides the reliable evidence for the landslide disaster evaluation and control.

关 键 词：滑坡分类 运动距离预测 沟谷型滑坡 统计模型 多元回归分析 汶川地震 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学] X43[天文地球—地质矿产勘探] X915.5[天文地球—地质学] P315[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]