河南省“21·7”极端暴雨灾害多区域间接经济损失评估  

Multi-regional Indirect Economic Loss Assessment of“21·7”Extreme Rainstorm in Henan Province

作　　者：刘远 李莹[1] 王国复[1] 尹金方 张正涛 朱业玉[4] 李宁[5] LIU Yuan;LI Ying;WANG Guofu;YIN Jinfang;ZHANG Zhengtao;ZHU Yeyu;LI Ning(National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorology Science,Beijing 100081,China;Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Henan Climate Center,Zhengzhou 450003 China;School of National Security and Emergency Management,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象学院研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [3]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875 [4]河南省气候中心,河南郑州450003 [5]北京师范大学国家安全与应急管理学院,北京100875

出　　处：《灾害学》2022年第4期45-51,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2021LASW-A20);国家气候中心2022年度气候研究开放课题青年基金;国家自然科学基金(41775103,41907395);中国博士后科学基金(2021M690425)。

摘　　要：采用适应性多区域投入产出模型,在地级尺度开展了河南省“21·7”极端暴雨灾害的间接损失评估。结果显示:①在当前的救助力度和重建速度情景下,此次极端暴雨灾害的重建期约为5年,总经济损失达到3793亿元,其中间接损失约为2444亿元,是直接经济损失的1.8倍;②郑州市、新乡市和鹤壁市遭受的间接损失最为严重,鹤壁市的间接损失相当于近4年GDP的增长率(25%),中小城市面临更高的间接损失风险;③农业和制造业承担了河南省超过半数的间接损失;④灾后适度的重建资金注入以及加速重建策略能够有效减轻灾害的间接损失。By using an adaptive multi-regional input-output model,the indirect loss of the“21·7”extreme rainstorm disaster in Henan Province at the city level is evaluated.The results show:(1)Under the current rescue and reconstruction speed scenario,the reconstruction period of this extreme rainstorm disaster is about 5 years,and the total economic loss reaches 379.3 billion yuan,of which the indirect loss is about 244.4 billion yuan,1.8 times the direct economic loss.(2)Zhengzhou,Xinxiang and Hebi suffered the most serious indirect losses,especially Hebi,which suffered indirect losses equivalent to the growth rate of GDP in the past four years.(3)The non-linear relationship between indirect and direct losses in small and medium-sized cities indicates that these cities face a higher risk of indirect losses.(4)Agriculture and manufacturing bear more than half of the indirect losses in Henan Province.(5)Appropriate injection of reconstruction funds and accelerated reconstruction strategies after the disaster can effectively reduce the indirect losses of the disaster.

关 键 词：河南“21·7”极端暴雨 间接损失 投入产出模型 多区域 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5