1984—2019年山东省暴雨洪涝灾害时空变化特征及其成因分析  

Tempo-spatial Variation and Cause Analysis of Rainstorms and related Flood Disasters in Shandong from 1984 to 2019

作　　者：邱粲 刘焕彬[1,2] 万程程 赵路娜[3] 温家洪 QIU Can;LIU Huanbin;WAN Chengcheng;ZHAO Luna;WEN Jiahong(Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong,Jinan 250031,China;Shandong Provincial Climate Centre,Jinan 250031,China;School of Environmental and Geographic Sciences,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,山东济南250031 [2]山东省气候中心,山东济南250031 [3]上海师范大学环境与地理科学学院,上海200234

出　　处：《灾害学》2022年第4期57-63,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42171080);山东省气象局气象科学技术研究项目(2019sdqxm02,2020sdqxm02)。

摘　　要：基于1984—2019年山东省县级暴雨洪涝历史灾情与123个国家地面气象观测站逐日降水量观测资料等,统计分析了山东地区暴雨及其诱发的洪涝灾害损失的时空变化特征,并从环流背景、致灾事件、灾害防治能力等方面分析了不同因子的影响。结果表明:近36年来山东省暴雨洪涝历史灾情呈现一定的加重趋势,2002年以后,暴雨洪涝灾害损失加重趋势更加显著且波动幅度增大。2003—2013年是暴雨洪涝灾情最重的10年,年均受灾面积714.3 khm^(2),比近36年平均值高52.6%。鲁西北、鲁西南的黄泛平原地区和鲁南的临沂地区是暴雨洪涝灾情较重的区域。菏泽、滨州、东营3市灾害影响程度呈上升趋势,滨州市受灾面积倾向率最大,为25.5 khm^(2)/10a,东营市成灾面积倾向率最大,为13.7 khm^(2)/10a。暴雨致灾事件对灾情影响最为显著,2002年以来,暴雨事件发生更多、更强且年际波动幅度增大。暴雨致灾事件的各项指标中,暴雨累计降水量和区域性暴雨过程强度是对灾情贡献率最高的因子,与成灾率的相关性系数分别达到0.713和0.686。地区灾害防治能力的加强对于减缓灾情加重的趋势起到了显著的作用。Based on the historical rainstorm related floods losses of counties and the daily precipitation observation data in Shandong from 1984 to 2019,the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of rainstorm and its induced flood disaster losses were analyzed,and the effects of different factors were studied from the aspects of circulation background,disaster-causing events,and disaster prevention and control capabilities.The results showed that in the past 36 years,the historical rainstorm related floods losses in Shandong had shown a certain trend of aggravation.After 2002,the aggravating trend had become more significant and the fluctuation range had increased.From 2003 to 2013,it was the 10 years with the heaviest storm and flood disasters,with an average annual disaster area of 714.3 khm^(2),52.6%higher than the average of the past 36 years.The areas with heavier rainstorm related floods losses were the Yellow River flood plain in the northwestern and southwestern Shandong and Linyi city in the south.The three cities of Heze,Binzhou and Dongying showed an upward trend in the degree of disaster impact.Binzhou had the largest tendency rate of affected crop area,which was 25.5 khm^(2)/10a,and Dongying had the largest tendency rate of damaged crop area,which was 13.7 khm^(2)/10a.Rainstorm events had the most significant impact on the disaster loss.Since 2002,rainstorm has occurred more and stronger with a greater inter-annual volatility.Among the indicators of hazard events,the cumulative precipitation of rainstorms and the intensity of regional rainstorm processes were the factors with the highest contribution rate to the disaster,and their correlation coefficients with the disaster rate reached 0.713 and 0.686,respectively.The strengthening of regional disaster prevention and control capacity had played a major role in mitigating the trend of disaster aggravation.

关 键 词：暴雨 洪涝灾害 损失 山东 防灾减灾 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5