基于综合灾害风险的应急避难服务供需评估与规划干预——以天津市为例  

Supply-Demand Analysis and Planning Intervention of Emergency Shelter Services based on Comprehensive Disaster Risk:A Case Study in Tianjin

作　　者：艾合麦提·那麦提 曾坚[1] 蒋飞阳 Aihemaiti NAMAITI;ZENG Jian;JIANG Feiyang(School of Architecture,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑学院,天津300072

出　　处：《灾害学》2022年第4期92-100,共9页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(52078330)。

摘　　要：基于应急避难服务供需视角,以应急避难场所人口容量密度反映供给能力,以综合灾害风险反映应急避难需求,构建了完整的技术框架,并根据应急避难服务供需评估结果进行应急避难规划干预优先级划分。基于此,以天津市为例,借助多源数据和GIS平台,采用AHP-熵权法确定各指标权重,通过耦合激励模型复合出多灾种危险性,并定量测度“地震地质-洪涝”灾害综合风险的应急避难服务需求;利用核密度法统计应急避难服务供给能力。最后,采用优先级指数进行供需程度评估,并将研究区划分为5个规划干预优先级,明确了应急避难规划建设的优先次序。Based on the perspective of emergency shelter service supply-demand analysis,a complete technical route Specifically,the population capacity density of emergency shelters is used to demonstrate the supply capacity,and the comprehensive risk of the‘earthquake geology-flood’disaster is constructed,applied to show the emergency shelter demand.In addition,according to the evaluation results of emergency shelter service supply and demand,we divided emergency shelter intervention planning into different priority levels.Thus,we took Tianjin as an example.Based on multi-source data and the GIS platform,we selected the AHP-entropy weight method to determine the weight of each index,while using a coupling indication model to compound the risk of multiple disasters.We also measured the emergency shelter service demand of the‘earthquake geology-flood’disaster comprehensive risk in a quantitative way.Moreover,the kernel density method is applied to calculate the supply capacity of emergency shelter services.Finally,we took advantage of the priority index to evaluate the degree of supply and demand,and divided the research area into five planning intervention priority levels,which is conducive to coming up with a definite priority for emergency shelter planning and construction.

关 键 词：应急避难场所 综合灾害风险 耦合激励模型 供需评估 规划干预 天津 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5[建筑科学—城市规划与设计] TU984.116[经济管理—国民经济] F299.249[天文地球—地震学] P315[天文地球—固体地球物理学]