台风影响下沿海城市风雨复合灾害风险研究——以海口市为例  

Research on the Risk of Joint Wind and Rain Hazards in Coastal Cities During Typhoons——A Case Study of Haikou City

作　　者：刘青[1,2,3] 王军[1,2,3] 许瀚卿 牛怡莹 魏旭辰 LIU Qing;WANG Jun;XU Hanqing;NIU Yiying;WEI Xuchen(Key Laboratory of Geographic Science of Ministry of Education,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;School of Geographic Science,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Research Center for Urban Public Security,Shanghai 200241,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200241 [2]华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海200241 [3]华东师范大学上海城市公共安全研究中心,上海200241

出　　处：《灾害学》2022年第4期129-134,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1508803);国家社会科学基金重大项目(18ZDA105)。

摘　　要：以海南省海口市为例,选取1960-2017年影响海口市的66场台风事件作为统计样本,采用M-K统计检验法对台风经过海口市的极大风速和过程累积降雨量的特征进行分析,基于Archimedean Copula函数拟合台风影响下风雨联合概率分布,结合K-S、AIC和BIC检验方法选出最优风雨联合分布函数,建立海口市风雨联合概率分布模型,并根据此模型评估海口市台风影响下的风雨复合灾害风险。研究结果表明:台风经过海口市的极大风速和过程累积降雨量之间存在结构依赖,随着年份变化呈现出不显著下降趋势,Gumbel Copula函数拟合海口市台风风雨联合分布特征效果最好,在气候变化和人类活动的双重影响下,海口市未来将面临着较高的台风风雨复合灾害风险。China is frequently affected by typhoons in summer and autumn due to its location in the northwest Pacific Ocean.Strong wind and heavy rainfall are the main hazard factors of typhoons.It is significant to explore the correlation between wind and rain,and quantitatively analyze the joint probability of them.In this study,Haikou City in Hainan Province is taken as an example and 66 typhoon events that have a serious impact on Haikou City from 1960 to 2017 are selected as statistical samples.The characteristics of the maximum wind speed and accumulated rainfall during the typhoon passing through the study area are analyzed by the M-K statistical test,and the marginal distributions of maximum wind speed and accumulated rainfall that fit the study area well are selected.The Archimedean Copula function is used to fit the joint probability distribution of wind and rain in Haikou,and the goodness of fit was evaluated according to the K-S test,AIC,and BIC criteria.Finally,the joint probability distribution model of wind and rain is established.The results show that the number of TCs affecting Haikou every year,the maximum wind speed during TCs,and the accumulated rainfall showed an insignificant downward trend over time.The Gumbel Copula function has the best goodness of fit for the combined wind and rain distribution characteristics of 66 TCs in Haikou.Under the dual influence of climate change and human activities,Haikou City will face a higher risk of wind and rainfall compound hazards in the future during typhoons.This research can help coastal cities to understand the mechanism of typhoon hazards better and provide some profound insights for urban precipitation forecasts and typhoon prevention.

关 键 词：台风 风雨复合灾害 极大风速 累积降雨 COPULA 海南海口 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5[天文地球—工程地质学] P642[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]