上海市居民洪涝灾害风险感知及其影响因素研究  

Analysis of the Flood Risk Perception and its Influence Factors of Shanghai Residents

作　　者：王初 殷杰[2] WANG Chu;YIN Jie(School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234,China;School of Geographic Sciences,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China)

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学环境与地理科学学院,上海200234 [2]华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海200062

出　　处：《灾害学》2022年第4期149-154,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点研发项目(2018YFC1508803);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41871009)。

摘　　要：洪涝灾害风险感知是影响城市洪涝灾害脆弱性的重要因素,采用问卷法对上海居民的洪涝灾害风险感知水平进行了调查,并对其影响因素进行了系统分析和研究。结果表明上海居民洪涝灾害风险感知水平总体偏低,对洪涝灾害发生可能性、孕灾环境变化和洪灾人为成因的感知均较弱,灾害经历缺失和部分居民对洪涝灾害危害认知的不足是主要影响因素。居民对防洪关键区域的感知水平极低,部分居民对洪涝灾害防治的相关信息并不关注,防洪教育培训不足和自救互救知识的匮乏是造成居民洪灾灾害适应感知水平低下的重要原因。居民最希望加强工程设施类防洪设施承灾能力的建设,对洪涝灾害的预警和响应均较满意,但并未认识到预警、响应、防灾预案等措施对减少洪涝灾害风险的重要性,一些行业的从业经历对预警和防灾预案的防灾效用感知有正向效应。居民普遍认同降低洪涝灾害风险是各利益相关方的共同责任,但部分居民的洪涝灾害适应观表现为对政府的依赖。The subjective assessment of risk perception is currently considered a crucial aspect in the context of flood risk management in metropolis.A questionnaire survey on flood risk perception was conducted in 16 municipal districts in Shanghai.Results of the study show that residents’flood risk perception,including flood occurrence probability perception,awareness of climate change and beliefs about the cause of flood,is generally low.Using logistic regression analysis,risk perception is found to be primarily influenced by flood experience and severity perception.Residents’location awareness of waterlogged points and emergency shelter is very low,flood knowledge education is the key factor to improving the level of flood adaptation perception.Residents are more willing to building urban flood control and waterlogging facilities to increasing the threshold against high river flow,while ignoring the role of early warning,emergency response and disaster prevention plans on flood risk management.Residents generally agree that reducing flood disaster risk is the common responsibility of all stakeholders,but some residents’view of flood disaster adaptation is dependent on the government.

关 键 词：洪涝灾害 风险感知 上海 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5[天文地球—工程地质学] P642[天文地球—地质矿产勘探] C93[天文地球—地质学]