考虑行人心理异质性的地铁站应急疏散仿真研究  

Simulation study of emergency evacuation in subway station considering pedestrian psychological heterogeneity

作　　者：王立晓[1] 盖筱培 郝闵熙 WANG Li-xiao;GE Xiao-pei;HAO Min-xi(School of Civil Engineering,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830047,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学建筑工程学院,乌鲁木齐830047

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2022年第6期3333-3341,共9页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2018D01C071)。

摘　　要：为深入探讨地铁站应急疏散过程中行人路径决策机制,构建考虑行人心理异质性的潜类别模型刻画个体的决策过程,基于仿真模拟对比其与不考虑心理异质性的多项Logit模型的疏散差异,并通过在仿真中设置不同心理类别人群比例,深入分析各类别人群的偏好差异及对疏散效率的影响。结果表明:潜类别模型比较符合现实中疏散人员的路径选择,能更好地揭示真实场景下行人的行为决策本质,比多项Logit模型描述的应急疏散更加合理;不同心理特征人群的选择偏好具有较大差异,恐慌型人群倾向于选择次长路径,焦虑型人群偏好最长路径,冲动型人群对最短路径有明显偏好,镇定型人群路径选择偏好更为多元。To deeply explore the pedestrian path decision-making mechanism in the emergency evacuation process of subway stations,a latent category model was constructed considering the psychological heterogeneity of pedestrians to describe the individual decision-making process.Based on Anylogic simulation platform,the evacuation difference between the latent category model and the multiple Logit model without considering psychological heterogeneity was simulated and compared.And by setting different proportions of different psychological categories in the simulation,the differences in preferences of various categories of people and the impact on evacuation efficiency are in-depth analyzed.The simulation results show that the latent category model is more in line with the path selection of evacuees in reality,and can better reveal the nature of the behavioral decision-making of pedestrians in real scenes.Moreover,the latent category model is more reasonable than the multinomial Logit model in describing emergency evacuation and has a higher prediction accuracy rate.The absolute error between the prediction results of the latent category model and the actual observed values of the questionnaire survey was 14.2%,lower than that of the multinomial Logit model.Compared with the multinomial Logit model,the evacuation efficiency of the latent category model considering pedestrian psychological heterogeneity is significantly improved,and the evacuation time is saved by 44 s.The selection preferences of people with different psychological characteristics are quite different.Panic people tend to choose the second-longest path,and the larger the proportion,the less conducive to crowd evacuation.Anxious people prefer the longest route,and a small number of anxious groups are conducive to mobilizing crowds to evacuate.Impulsive people have a clear preference for the shortest path.Calm people have more diverse path choices,and the larger the proportion of such people,the smaller the marginal utility.The research results can provide a t

关 键 词：公共安全 心理潜变量 心理异质性 潜类别模型 路径选择行为 疏散仿真 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]