“三孩”政策下我国城乡学前教育师资需求预测——基于CPPS人口软件的分析  

Analysis of the Demand for Teachers in Urban and Rural Preschool Education under the “Three-child” Policy:Based on the Statistical Analysis of the CPPS Population Forecasting Software

作　　者：孙百才 王嫣 SUN Bai-cai;WANG Yan(Teachers College,Qingdao University)

机构地区：[1]青岛大学师范学院

出　　处：《教育经济评论》2022年第6期84-103,共20页China Economics of Education Review

基　　金：全国教育科学规划重点课题“‘十三五’期间学龄人口变动与基础教育资源配置规划研究”(AGA180007);青岛市社科规划项目“青岛市义务教育优质均衡发展战略研究”;泰山学者工程专项经费资助。

摘　　要：近些年我国生育政策变化影响着学前教育适龄人口变动,打破了学前教育资源配置供需平衡。本文以第六次和第七次全国人口普查数据为基础,运用中国人口预测系统(CPPS)分析软件,采用低和高两种方案分析新生育政策在不同预期下对全国及城乡学前教育学位和师资需求的影响,运用时间序列预测分析了师资供需差距。研究发现,低方案下2022—2035年我国城乡学前教育学位和教师需求数均呈下降趋势,高方案下生育政策的影响于2024年显现,2028年达到学位和教师需求峰值,此后逐渐回落,其中城镇的波动大于农村;城乡教师数量供需差距过大,在1∶17、1∶15的师生比水平下,高低方案的城镇地区教师供给完全可以满足需求,同时要谨防学位和师资需求数下降后的资源浪费问题。农村地区在低方案下维持1∶17的师生比仍存在一定压力,高方案下的教师供需矛盾更加突出。In recent years, changes in China’s fertility policy have affected the changes in the population of preschool education age, breaking the balance between supply and demand of preschool education resources.Based on the data of the sixth and seventh census, this paper uses the China Population Prediction System(CPPS) analysis software, and adopts low and high schemes to analyze the effects of the new birth policy on preschool education degrees and teacher demand in the country and in urban and rural areas under different expected effects, using time series forecasting to analyze the gap between the supply and demand of teachers.The results show that under the low plan, the demand for preschool education degrees and teachers in both urban and rural areas in China from 2022 to 2035 will show a downward trend.Under the high plan, the impact of the fertility policy will appear in 2024,and the demand for degrees and teachers will peak in 2028,and then, gradually fall back, among which the fluctuations in urban areas are greater than those in rural areas;the gap between the supply and demand of teachers in urban and rural areas is too large, and the supply of teachers in urban areas with the ratio of teachers to students of 1∶17 and 1∶15 can fully meet the demand.At the same time, must beware of the waste of resources after the number of demand drops;In rural areas, there is still some pressure to maintain a teacher-student ratio of 1∶17 under the low scheme, and the contradiction between teacher supply and demand under the high scheme is more prominent.To this end, three suggestions are put forward to promote the rational distribution of the number of preschool teachers in urban and rural areas.

关 键 词：“三孩”政策 学前教育适龄人口 城乡师资需求 

分 类 号：G615[文化科学—学前教育学]