基于GM(1,1)模型的青藏高原农业山区生态安全预警与分析  

Early Warning and Analysis of Ecological Security in Agricultural Mountainous Areas of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Based on GM(1,1) Model

作　　者：郭婧 魏珍 周华坤[2] Guo Jing;Wei Zhen;Zhou Huakun(Qinghai Academy of Social Sciences,Xining 810000,China;Key Laboratory of Restoration Ecology of Cold Areas,Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology,Xining 810008,Qinghai,China)

机构地区：[1]青海省社会科学院,西宁810000 [2]中国科学院西北高原生物研究所,青海省寒区恢复生态学重点实验室,西宁810008

出　　处：《青海科技》2022年第6期38-45,共8页Qinghai Science and Technology

基　　金：青海省自然科学基金创新团队项目(2021-ZJ-902);海南州科技支撑计划项目(2022-KZ01-A);2020年第二批林业草原生态保护恢复资金——祁连山国家公园青海片区生物多样性保护项目(QHTX-2021-009)。

摘　　要：文章以青藏高原农业山区为研究对象,构建了生态安全预警指标体系,利用生态安全预警模型对2011年~2018年各区县生态安全预警程度进行评估,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型对近3年的警情演变趋势进行预测。结果表明:(1)2011年~2018年青藏高原农业山区的生态环境得到了逐步改善,2018年各区县的生态安全预警值大于2011年的生态安全预警值。(2)相比较2011年,2018年该地区的生态安全状态已经有了明显的改善。湟中区、平安区、乐都区、林周县、贡嘎县、南木林县和德钦县生态安全预警值处在0.6008~0.6448之间,生态安全处于第Ⅳ等级,比2011年提高了一到两个等级。本研究旨在为青藏高原农业山区的生态环境管理与可持续发展提供理论依据。Taking the agricultural mountainous areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as the research object,this paper constructs an ecological security early warning index system, uses the ecological security early warning model to evaluate the degree of ecological security early warning in each district and county in 2011~2018, and uses the gray GM(1,1) model to predict the evolution trend of the police situation in the past three years. The results showed that:(1) The ecological environment of the agricultural mountainous areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was gradually improved in 2011~2018, and the ecological security warning value of each district in 2018 was greater than the ecological security warning value in 2011.(2) Compared with 2011, the ecological security of the region had improved significantly in 2018. The ecological security warning values of Huangzhong District, Ping’an District,Ledu District, Linzhou County, Gonggar County, Nanmulin County and Deqin County are between 0.6008 and 0.6448,and the ecological security is at level IV, which is one or two levels higher than in 2011. This study aims to provide a theoretical basis for ecological environment management and sustainable development in agricultural mountainous areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

关 键 词：青藏高原 GM(1 1) 模型 生态安全 预警 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]