基于相对海平面变化的广西茅尾海红树林面积稳定性评估  

Assessment of mangrove area stability based on relative sea level change in Maowei Sea, Guangxi

作　　者：罗新正[1] 孟宪伟 LUO Xin-zheng;MENG Xian-wei(School of Environmental and Material Engineering,Yantai University,Yantai 264005,China;First Institute of Oceanography,Ministry of Natural Resources,Qingdao 266061,China)

机构地区：[1]烟台大学环境与材料工程学院,山东烟台264005 [2]自然资源部第一海洋研究所,山东青岛266061

出　　处：《海洋环境科学》2022年第6期881-887,共7页Marine Environmental Science

基　　金：全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划(2010CB951203)。

摘　　要：红树林面积的稳定性评估对于保护和利用广西茅尾海红树林的作用很大。本文分析了自2000年到2100年全球平均海平面上升、地壳上升、潮滩沉积、潮滩坡度和海堤对茅尾海红树林面积的影响,建立了红树林边界位置的预测模型;利用预测模型估算2100年红树林边界的高程数据,确定红树林边界的空间位置。根据分析,本文得到以下结论:(1)当全球平均海平面以低模式上升时,茅尾海东北区段红树林面积大量增加,西北、东南和西南区段红树林面积中量增加。当全球平均海平面以中模式上升时,东北区段红树林面积大量增加,东南区段和西南区段少量增加,西北区段稳定。当全球平均海平面以高模式上升时,西北区段红树林面积大量减少,东北区段中量减少,东南区段和西南区段稳定。西北、东北区段红树林面积减少将降低红树林的生态功能和资源价值,务必引起特别关注。(2)茅尾海西北、东北区段红树林面积减少的主要原因,是全球平均海平面以高模式上升引起的红树林向海边界、向陆地方向的移动。(3)当全球平均海平面以高模式上升时,茅尾海西北区段和东北区段应采取适量拆除海堤或后撤海堤的措施,增加向陆边界一侧红树林的面积,以抵消向海边界一侧红树林面积的减少。The assessment of Mangrove area stability plays an important role in the protection and utilization of mangrove in Maowei Sea, Guangxi. We discussed the effects of global mean sea level rise, crustal rise, tidal flat deposition, tidal flat slope and seawall on mangrove area in Maowei Sea from 2000 to 2100. We established the prediction model of mangrove boundary position, used the prediction model to estimate the elevation data of mangrove boundary in 2100 and located the spatial location of mangrove boundary. After analyzing the mangrove area change, we got the following conclusions.(1) When the global mean sea level rises in a low mode, the mangrove area will increase greatly in the northeast section of Maowei Sea and increase moderately in all of the northwest, southeast and southwest sections. When the global mean sea level rises in a medium mode, the mangrove area will increase greatly in the northeast section, increase slightly in the southeast and southwest sections and be stable in the northwest section. When the global mean sea level rises in a high mode,the mangrove area will decrease greatly in the northwest section, decrease moderately in the northeast section and be stable in the southeast and southwest sections. The reduction of mangrove area in the northwest and northeast sections will reduce the ecological function and resource value of mangroves, which must be paid special attention.(2) The main reason for the decrease of mangrove area in the northwest and northeast parts of the Maowei Sea is the movement of the mangrove seaward boundary towards land caused by the global mean sea level rising in a high pattern.(3) When the global mean sea level rises in a high mode, the seawall should be demolished or retreated appropriately in the northwest and northeast sections to increase the mangrove area on the landward boundary side so as to offset the reduction of mangrove area on the seaward boundary side.

关 键 词：相对海平面变化 茅尾海 红树林 数字高程模型 

分 类 号：X173[环境科学与工程—环境科学]