基于多层神经网络的西双版纳土地利用时空演变及预测研究  

Dynamic change and prediction of land use cover in Xishuangbanna based on multi-layer perceptron

作　　者：许安泽 张述清[2] 朱大明[1] 裘木兰 保红[3] XU Anze;ZHANG Shuqing;ZHU Daming;QIU Mulan;BAO Hong(Faculty of Land Resources Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming,Yunnan 650093,China;Land and Resources Planning and Design Institute of Yunnan Province,Kunming,Yunnan 652100,China;Kunming Real Estate Ownership Investigation Center(Kunming Institute of Surveying and Mapping of Land Planning and Prospecting),Kunming,Yunnan 650200,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,云南昆明650093 [2]云南省国土资源规划设计研究院,云南昆明652100 [3]昆明市不动产权籍调查中心(昆明市国土规划勘察测绘研究院),云南昆明650200

出　　处：《贵州师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第1期32-40,共9页Journal of Guizhou Normal University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：云南省自然资源厅第三次全国土地调查成果验收基金项目(430000HT201903872)。

摘　　要：为研究2009—2019年西双版纳土地利用变化时空规律及预测十年后土地利用空间格局,以2009年第二次全国土地调查、2014年土地变更调查数据和2019年第三次全国国土调查成果为数据源,结合高程、坡度、人口密度等驱动因子,分析2009—2019年西双版纳土地利用时空演变,并基于多层神经网络(MLP)与多标准评价(MCE)方法预测2029年土地利用分布。分析表明2009—2019年西双版纳土地利用类型以林地和园地为主,二者合计面积占比超过85%,十年间地类均发生不同程度的变化,变化最明显的是草地面积大量减少。预测显示西双版纳西部地区的勐海县未来土地利用变化的概率会更大,耕地面积进一步遭受威胁,生态保护红线的边缘土地利用有较大的可能会发生变化。研究认为应严格保护耕地和生态红线、严控城镇开发边界,遏制耕地“非农化”与建设用地“贴线开发”。To study the temporal and spatial patterns of land use change in Xishuangbanna from 2009 to 2019 and to predict the spatial pattern of land use in the next ten years,based on the results of the second national land Survey in 2009,the land change survey in 2014 and the third national land survey in 2019,the spatio and temporal evolution of land use in Xishuangbanna from 2009 to 2019 was analyzed in combination with driving factors such as elevation,slope and population density.The land use distribution in 2029 was predicted based on multilayer perceptron(MLP)and mulit-criteria evaluation(MCE).The analysis shows that the main land use types in Xishuangbanna from 2009 to 2019 are forest land and garden land,with the total area of the two accounting for more than 85%.In the past ten years,the land use types have changed in different degrees,and the most obvious change is the decrease of grassland area.The prediction shows that menghai County in the western part of Xishuangbanna will have a greater probability of land use change in the future,and the cultivated land area will be further threatened.The land use at the edge of the ecological protection red line is likely to change.The results suggest that we should strictly protect cultivated land and ecological red line,strictly control the urban development boundary,and curb the"non-agricultural"of cultivated land and the"borderline development"of construction land.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 多层神经网络 趋势预测 多标准评价 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]