中国能源消费CO_(2)排放的影响因素及情景分析  

Influencing factors and scenario analysis of China’s CO_(2) emission of energy consumption

作　　者：张剑 刘景洋[1] 董莉[1] 乔琦[1] ZHANG Jian;LIU Jingyang;DONG Li;QIAO Qi(State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Eco-Industry,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences)

机构地区：[1]国家环境保护生态工业重点实验室,中国环境科学研究院

出　　处：《环境工程技术学报》2023年第1期71-78,共8页Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1903601)。

摘　　要：针对我国2030年碳达峰要求,立足当前经济和能源需求快速发展的现状,选取2000—2020年时间序列数据,采用Tapio脱钩模型,定量分析中国能源消费CO_(2)排放量与经济增长的脱钩状况;建立扩展的STIRPAT模型,探讨中国能源消费CO_(2)排放的影响因素;运用情景分析法对基准情景(S0)、产业结构优化情景(S1)、能源结构优化情景(S2)、多要素优化情景(S3)4种情景下的CO_(2)排放量进行了预测。结果表明:中国能源消费CO_(2)排放量与经济增长之间的脱钩状态总体以弱脱钩为主。人口规模、能源消费结构、第二产业占比、城镇化率、人均GDP、第三产业占比、碳排放强度每变动1%时,分别引起能源消费CO_(2)排放量的2.857%、0.879%、0.836%、0.623%、(0.221+0.011ln A1)%、0.241%、0.132%的变动。基准情景下中国在2030年之前不能实现碳达峰,产业结构优化情景和能源结构优化情景下在2030年实现碳达峰,峰值分别为110.90亿和109.18亿t,多要素优化情景下可以在2030年之前实现碳达峰,峰值为105.03亿t。In view of China’s action plan for peak carbon dioxide emission before 2030 and the current rapid development of economic and energy demand,based on the time series data from 2000 to 2020,the Tapio decoupling model was used to quantitatively analyze the decoupling status between CO_(2)emission of energy consumption and economic growth in China.The expanded STIRPAT model was established,the influencing factors on CO_(2)emission of energy consumption were analyzed,and the scenario analysis was used to predict CO_(2)emission of China’s energy consumption in the future under four different scenarios:baseline scenario(S0),industrial structure optimization scenario(S1),energy structure optimization scenario(S2)and multi-factor optimization scenario(S3).The results showed that:The decoupling between CO_(2)emission of energy consumption and economic growth was generally dominated by weak decoupling.It was found that for 1%change in population,energy consumption structure,proportion of the secondary industry,urbanization level,per-capita GDP,proportion of the tertiary industry,and carbon emissions intensity,there was 2.857%,0.879%,0.836%,0.623%,(0.221+0.011ln A1)%,0.241%,and 0.132%change in CO_(2)emission,respectively.Under the baseline scenario,the carbon dioxide peak could not be achieved before 2030.Under the industrial structure optimization scenario and the energy structure optimization scenario,China would achieve the peak carbon dioxide emission in 2030,with peaks of11.090 billion tons and 10.918 billion tons,respectively.Under the multi-factor optimization scenario,the carbon dioxide peak could be achieved before 2030,and the peak would be 10.503 billion tons.

关 键 词：能源消费 CO_(2)排放 脱钩效应 影响因素 趋势预测 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X196