基于实物期权法的600 MW火电机组CCS-EOR项目价值评估  

Valuation of 600 MW thermal power unit CCS-EOR project based on real option method

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作  者:王建峰 何胜 WANG Jian-feng;HE Sheng

机构地区:[1]华电电力科学研究院有限公司,浙江杭州310030

出  处:《节能》2022年第11期78-81,共4页Energy Conservation

基  金:中国华电集团科技项目资助(项目编号:CHDKJ19-01-90)。

摘  要:600 MW燃煤发电机组项目采用CCS-EOR技术脱除CO_(2),将捕集的CO_(2)用于油田驱油。通过合理假设,采用B-S期权中欧式看涨模型求解,基于实物期权法分析项目的价值,对比实物期权法与净现值法计算项目的差异,对比原油价格和碳交易价格的波动率的变化,计算实物期权法三种假设条件下的项目价值变化规律,在原油价格变动的条件下计算实物期权法与净现值法对项目价值的影响度。结果表明:结合实物期权法与净现值法,对项目投资时间的决策优于净现值单一的决策判断条件;实物期权法对项目的投资可将风险、不确定条件等转化为项目的期权价值,有效弥补了净现值法在项目决策中立即投资和放弃投资单一决策的不足;随选定参数波动率的不断增大,实物期权法计算所得项目价值敏感度逐渐提高。The project of 600 MW coal-fired generating unit used CCS-EOR technology to remove CO_(2)and use the re-collected CO_(2)for oilfield displacement. Through reasonable assumptions, the classical solution method of the European call model of B-S options was adopted, the value of the project was analyzed based on the real option method,the difference between the real option method and the net present value method was compared, and the fluctuation rate with the crude oil price and Carbon trading prices price was compared, the change law of the project value under the three hypothetical conditions of the real option was calculated, and the influence of the real option method and the net present value method on the project value was calculated under the condition of crude oil price change. The results show that the combination of the real option method and the net present value method calculates the decision-making conditions that were better than the single net present value decision-making conditions for the project investment time. The investment of the real option method in the project could transform the risk, uncertainty conditions into the option value of the project, which effectively makes up for the lack of the net present value method in the project decision-making immediate investment and abandonment of the investment single decision. With the continuous increase of the volatility of the selected parameters, the sensitivity of the value of the items calculated by the real option method gradually increases.

关 键 词:CCS-EOR 实物期权法 波动率 火电机组 

分 类 号:X701[环境科学与工程—环境工程]

 

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