我国常见犯罪的动态分析——以近25年官方数据为例  

Dynamic Analysis of Common Crimes in China: On Basis of Offcial Data from Last 25 Years

作　　者：胡文涛 HU Wen-tao(National Police University of China,Shenyang 110035,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]中国刑事警察学院,辽宁沈阳110035

出　　处：《红河学院学报》2023年第1期73-77,共5页Journal of Honghe University

基　　金：2020年度中国刑事警察学院研究生创新能力培养专项资金资助项目:犯罪学视域下主动警务的理论基础与效果评价(2020YCYB15)。

摘　　要：常见犯罪具有频率高、更新快、严重危害社会等特点,因此需要宏观把握。根据官方数据将伤害、抢劫、强奸、盗窃和诈骗犯罪作为研究常见犯罪的对象,统计常见犯罪的数量变化趋势,并用定基增长率公式计算整体犯罪增长率,用动态对比方式分析和预测常见犯罪的形势。针对目前形势较严重的诈骗、盗窃和强奸犯罪,根据威慑和情境犯罪预防理论提出对应的防控策略,以期为相关政策的制定提供理论借鉴。On the official data from the last 25 years, the crimes of injury, robbery, rape, theft and fraud are taken as the objects of studying common crimes, and the trend of changes in the number of common crimes is counted. The overall crime growth rate is calculated using the fixed base growth rate formula, and the situation of common crimes is analyzed and predicted using a dynamic comparison method. According to the theories of deterrence and situational crime prevention, corresponding prevention and control strategies are proposed for the current serious fraud, theft and rape crimes, with a view to providing theoretical reference for the formulation of relevant policies.

关 键 词：常见犯罪 犯罪数量 增长率 防控对策 

分 类 号：DF792[政治法律—诉讼法学]