基于二元维纳过程的水工闸门剩余寿命预测  

Remaining useful life prediction of hydraulic gate based on 2D Wiener process

作　　者：杨涛[1] 张钰奇 李凯旋[1] 韩明海 赵华东[1] YANG Tao;ZHANG Yuqi;LI Kaixuan;HAN Minhai;ZHAO Huadong(School of Civil Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Luhun Reservoir Administration of Henan Province,Luoyang 471000,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学机械与动力工程学院,河南郑州450001 [2]河南省陆浑水库管理局,河南洛阳471000

出　　处：《人民长江》2023年第1期194-199,共6页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家工信部智能制造综合标准化与新模式应用项目(2018037);河南省水利部水利科技攻关项目(GG202068)。

摘　　要：针对水工闸门运行过程中因性能退化而引起的剩余寿命预测问题,提出了一种基于二元维纳过程的水工闸门剩余寿命预测方法。利用二元维纳过程建立闸门因腐蚀而引起的变形、应力退化过程模型,并基于AIC准则选择出合适的Copula函数分析其相关特性;通过分步极大似然估计法估计出模型中的参数,得到闸门剩余寿命概率密度函数,同时基于剩余寿命预测结果确定闸门的维修时间。最后,以河南省陆浑水库的弧形钢闸门为例进行数值仿真,验证了结果的合理性。结果表明:采用多指标方法更能全面、准确地反映出闸门的健康状态,基于二元维纳过程预测的闸门剩余寿命其RMSE为3.46,小于一元维纳过程的4.72,具有较高的预测精度。研究成果可为合理评估闸门的寿命状态,确定合适的维修时间以延长闸门寿命提供依据。Aiming at the problem of remaining useful life prediction caused by performance degradation during the operation of hydraulic gates,a remaining useful life prediction method of hydraulic gates based on 2D Wiener process was proposed.Firstly the 2D Wiener process was used to establish the deformation and stress degradation process model of the gate caused by corrosion,and the appropriate Copula function was selected based on the AIC criterion to analyze its related characteristics.Then the parameters in the model were estimated by the stepwise maximum likelihood estimation method,and the probability density function of the remaining life of the gate was obtained.At the same time,the maintenance time of the gate was determined based on the remaining life prediction results.Finally,taking the radial steel gate of Luhun Reservoir as an example,the numerical simulation was carried out to verify the rationality of the prediction results of remaining useful life.The results showed that the multi-index method can reflect the health status of the gate more comprehensively and accurately.The RMSE of the remaining useful life of the gate predicted based on the 2D Wiener process was 3.46,which was less than 4.72 by one-dimensional Wiener process.The research results provide a basis for reasonably evaluating the life state of the gate and determining the appropriate maintenance time to extend the gate serving life.

关 键 词：闸门腐蚀 剩余寿命预测 二元维纳过程 COPULA函数 

分 类 号：TV663[水利工程—水利水电工程]