1980~2018年湖北省土地生态风险时空演变分析  

Spatial-temporal Evolution of Land Ecological Risk in Hubei Province,China from 1980 to 2018

作　　者：胡海[1,2] 周勇 徐涛[1,2] HU Hai;ZHOU Yong;XU Tao(School of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Wuhan 430079,China;Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis&Simulation Hubei Province,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院,湖北武汉430079 [2]地理过程分析与模拟湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2022年第10期2246-2258,共13页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41271534,40971218);自然资源部国土整治中心重点项目(2018-02-10);农业农村部重点项目(2018-05-10)。

摘　　要：研究区域土地生态风险对于指导土地合理利用,促进生态文明建设有重要意义。以湖北省1980、2000、2018年三期土地利用/覆被数据为基础,通过构建综合土地生态风险指数,采用普通克里金插值法,模拟并分析了近40 a间湖北省土地生态风险的时空演化。结果表明:(1)研究期间湖北省土地生态风险的平均水平由0.434 9下降到0.434 1,再上升到了0.441 0,表现出先减后增的变化特征;(2)在10 km×10 km尺度下,空间自相关结构是湖北省土地生态风险空间分异的主导因素,在1980、2000年表现为各向异性,2018年表现为各向同性。(3)研究期间,风险等级提高的概率远高于下降,且转化几乎仅在相邻等级间发生,出现跳跃性改变的可能性极低;高风险地区增加了7 785 km^(2),其余等级均呈减少趋势,低风险区、较低风险区、中风险区、较高风险区面积分别减少了283、6 539、339、625 km^(2)。(4)湖北省土地生态风险的分布格局整体呈东高西低,低风险核心区位于神农架林区,高风险核心在江汉平原及武汉片区,此外襄阳市北部也存在一个稍小的高风险区域,并逐渐沿枣阳-荆门和随州中部-孝感两条线路往江汉平原方向蔓延。Studying land ecological risk is of great significance for guiding the rational use of land and promoting the construction of ecological civilization.Based on the land use/cover data of Hubei Province in 1980,2000 and 2018,this study simulated and analyzed the temporal-spatial evolution of land ecological risk in Hubei Province from 1980 to 2018 by constructing a comprehensive land ecological risk index and using ordinary Kriging method.The results showed that:(1) The average value of land ecological risk in Hubei Province decreased from 0.434 9 in 1980 to 0.434 1 in 2000 but increased to 0.441 0 in 2018,exhibiting the characteristics of first decreasing and then increasing.(2) On the 10 km×10 km spatial scale,the structure of spatial autocorrelation was the dominant factor for the spatial variation of land ecological risk in Hubei Province,and it presented a very strong anisotropy in 1980 and 2000,while isotropy in 2018.(3) During the study period,the probability of risk grades’ increase was much higher than that of decrease.The risk grades’ transformation occurred almost only between adjacent levels,and the possibility of the risk grades changed in a jumping type was very low.The high-risk areas increased by 7 785 square kilometers,and the others all showed a decreasing trend.The areas of low,low-medium,medium and medium-high risk decreased by 283,6 539,339 and 625 square kilometers,respectively.(4) The spatial distribution pattern of the land ecological risk in Hubei Province showed a characteristics of high in the east and low in the west.The low-risk core area was situated in Shennongjia Forestry District,while the high-risk core area was situated in Jianghan Plain and Wuhan district.Besides,there was a smaller high-risk concentration area in the north of Xiangyang City,which gradually spread to the Jianghan Plain in the two derections of Zaoyang-Jingmen and Suizhou-Xiaogan.

关 键 词：土地利用 景观生态 生态风险评价 土地生态风险 湖北省 

分 类 号：P901[天文地球—自然地理学]