中国森林碳汇潜力与增汇成本评估——基于Meta分析方法  

Assessment of forest carbon sequestration potential and the cost of increasing carbon sequestration in China:Based on meta-analysis method

作　　者：许骞骞 曹先磊 孙婷 朱颖 吴伟光[1,3,4] XU Qian-qian;CAO Xian-lei;SUN Ting;ZHU Ying;WUWei-guang(College of Economics and Management,Zhejiang Agriculture&Forestry University,Hangzhou 311300,China;Faculty of International Trade,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan 030006,China;Research Academy for Rural Revitalization of Zhejiang Province,Zhejiang Agriculture&Forestry University,Hangzhou 311300,China;Institute of Ecological Civilization&Institute of Carbon Neutrality,Zhejiang Agriculture&Forestry University,Hangzhou 311300,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学经济管理学院,杭州311300 [2]山西财经大学国际贸易学院,太原030006 [3]浙江农林大学浙江省乡村振兴研究院,杭州311300 [4]浙江农林大学生态文明与碳中和研究院,杭州311300

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2022年第12期3217-3233,共17页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71873126);浙江省自然科学基金项目(LZ19G030001);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(21YJC790003);山西省科技战略研究专项项目(202104031402076)。

摘　　要：准确评估中国森林碳汇潜力与增汇成本的经济可行性,是科学制定碳中和林业行动方案的基础。然而针对中国森林碳汇潜力与增汇成本的不同结果差异明显,可靠性需要进一步验证。为此,基于相关文献,采用Meta分析方法,对中国森林碳汇潜力与增汇成本及其导致差异的原因展开评估。研究表明:(1)中国森林碳汇量呈现不断增长的态势,但不同研究对森林碳汇潜力测度结果存在较大差异。(2)中国森林增汇的平均成本为220.45元/t CO_(2e)(区间值为3.9~1457.02元/t CO_(2e)),与工业减排成本相比,中国森林增汇更具有经济可行性,但波动幅度较大。(3)评估方法采用、碳库数量选择等因素是导致已有森林碳汇潜力文献估计结果差异的关键因素;森林增汇成本差异则主要受碳汇成本测度研究方法、成本收益数据来源等因素影响。(4)中国森林增汇对碳中和的贡献将会持续增加。基于研究结果,提出进一步深化森林碳汇潜力与成本测算相关研究等方面的政策建议。Accurately assessing China’s forest carbon sequestration potential and the cost of increasing carbon sequestration serves as the basis for carbon neutrality forestry action plans and forestry sequestration policies. In spite of the fact that there have been numerous studies conducted on the potential for forest carbon sequestration in China, as well as the costs associated with increasing carbon sequestration, the results are very different, and the reliability of the research results needs further verification. In this article, we review the research literature on China’s forest carbon sequestration potential and the cost of increasing carbon sequestration. We use meta-analytical techniques to conduct a comprehensive and systematic assessment, as well as the reasons for these differences. The results indicated that:(1) China’s forest carbon sequestration shows a trend of continuous growth. Nevertheless, the results of measuring forest carbon sequestration potential in different studies are quite diverse.(2) In China, the average cost for increasing forest carbon sequestration is 220.45 yuan/t CO_(2e)(range value: 3.9-1457.02 yuan/t CO_(2e)). Compared with the cost of industrial emission reduction,increasing forest carbon sequestration is more economically feasible, while the range of fluctuation is much larger.(3) It has been found that the factors responsible for the variation in estimation results of forest carbon sequestration potential in existing literature include assessment methods, carbon pool quantity, different sources of measurement micro parameters,forest resource structure, and spatial heterogeneity within forest carbon sequestration measurements. Forest carbon sequestration costs are primarily influenced by the research methods of carbon sequestration cost measurement, the source of cost-benefit data, the selection of cost-benefit indicators, and the characteristics of the evaluation object.(4) The contribution of China’s forest to carbon neutrality is likely to continue to increase. Furthe

关 键 词：森林碳汇潜力 森林增汇成本 META分析 碳中和 

分 类 号：X173[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F326.2[经济管理—产业经济]