产业结构、居民工作时间与人口出生率  

Industrial Structure,Residents'Working Hours and Birth Rate

作　　者：马光明[1] 丁波鹦 MA Guangming;DING Boying(Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 102200,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院,北京102200

出　　处：《审计与经济研究》2023年第1期96-106,共11页Journal of Audit & Economics

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金项目(19YJC034)。

摘　　要：21世纪以来中国人口出生率出现显著下降,而产业结构升级导致的居民工作时间波动增加可能是出生率下降的重要原因。将中国城镇行业加权平均工作时间作为关键解释变量,利用2003—2019年中国省级面板数据的实证研究发现,控制其他因素的影响后,考察期内城镇居民平均工作时间的增加显著降低了当地人口出生率。进一步研究表明,居民收入、工作时间对出生率存在交互影响,人均可支配收入越高,工作时间增加对出生率的负向冲击就越被削弱,即收入水平对劳动闲暇具有一定补偿作用。构建工具变量“经济地理偏离度”、去除少数民族自治区及基于SYS-GMM方法的稳健性检验也得出了一致结论。异质性检验则发现无论城镇男性或女性居民平均工作时间的增加都会负向冲击当地人口出生率。相关部门应在保证居民收入持续增长的基础上严格规范工时制度,保障职工拥有充足劳动闲暇,并对家庭生育予以必要的支持辅助,避免人口出生率持续下降。China's birth rate has declined significantly since the 21st century,and the increase in residents'working hours caused by the upgrading of industrial structure might be an important reason for the decline in the birth rate.The research constructed weighted average working hours of China's urban industry as the key explanatory variable,and used the empirical study of China's provincial panel data from 2003 to 2019 to find thatafter controlling the influence of other factors,the increase in the average working time of urban residents significantly reduced the local population birth rate.Further research has showed that residents'income and working hours have interactive effects on the birth rate.The higher the per capita disposable income,the more the negative impact of increased working hours on the birth rate would be.The income level has a certain compensation effect on labor leisure.The construction of instrumental variable“economic geography deviation degree”,the removal of minority autonomous regions and the robustness test based on Sys-GMM method also reach consistent conclusions.The heterogeneity test found that the increase of average working hours of urban male and female residents would both negatively impact the local birth rate.Relevant departments should strictly regulate the working hour system on the basis of ensuring the continuous growth of residents'income,ensure that employees have sufficient labor leisure,and provide necessary support and assistance to family childbearing to avoid a continuous decline in the birth rate.

关 键 词：产业结构 工作时间 劳动闲暇 出生率 居民收入 家庭生育 

分 类 号：C971[经济管理—劳动经济]