高速公路连续下坡路段货车追尾风险评价研究  

Study on Risk Evaluation of Truck Rear-end Collision in Continuous Downhill Section of Expressway

作　　者：邹海云 刘锴 张驰[2] 马如鹏 王博 ZOU Hai-yun;LIU Kai;ZHANG Chi;MA Ru-peng;WANG Bo(Sichuan Leshan-Xichang Expressway Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu Sichuan 610000,China;School of Highway,Chang'an University,Xi'an Shaanxi 710064,China;Hunan Provincial Communications Planning,Survey&Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Changsha Hunan 410200,China)

机构地区：[1]四川乐西高速公路有限责任公司,四川成都610000 [2]长安大学公路学院,陕西西安710064 [3]湖南省交通规划勘察设计院有限公司,湖南长沙410200

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2022年第12期188-195,238,共9页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：四川省交通运输厅科技项目(2021-ZL-15);四川省科技计划资助项目(2022YFG0048)。

摘　　要：为了提高高速公路连续下坡路段货车行车安全性,优化交通安全管理或交安设施的设计,深入研究高速公路连续下坡路段货车追尾事故风险,基于实测数据提出了考虑车速差与车头时距的追尾风险评价指标——碰撞减速率(CDR)。首先,分析长大下坡路段货车追尾事故风险原理,利用西部某高速公路特管区长下坡路段的货车行车数据,确定风险影响因素为车速差与车头时距。然后,通过拟合分布检验,分析计算得到有效CDR数据的分布规律,并以其分布的85%分位值作为危险CDR阈值。最后,结合碰撞潜在指数(CPI)概念建立基于CDR的连续下坡货车追尾风险概率模型。以高速公路特管区追尾事故数据为基础,对基于CDR的连续下坡货车追尾风险概率模型进行应用与检验。结果表明:拟合分布检验中,所研究连续下坡路段的CDR样本服从对数正态分布,危险CDR的阈值为0.4916 m/s2;在不同测点处的追尾概率风险有较为显著的差异,而不同时间段的追尾风险无明显差异;经验证,事故率数据与概率风险数据相关系数为94.5%,为强相关,即事故率数据与概率风险数据的变化趋势一致性强,表明基于CDR的追尾事故风险概率模型可为高速公路连续下坡路段的风险研究提供科学评估依据。In order to improve the safety of truck traffic on continuous downhill sections of expressways,optimise traffic safety management or the design of traffic safety facilities,in-depth study the risk of rear-end collision accidents of trucks on continuous downhill sections of expressways,based on actual measurement data,the evaluation indicator of rear-end collision risk considering the speed difference and headway,Collision Deceleration Rate(CDR),is put forward.First,the principle of risk of rear-end collision accidents of trucks on long downhill road sections is analysed,and the risk influencing factors are determined as speed difference and headway by using the data of truck travelling on long downhill road sections in a special control area of a western expressway.Then,the distribution of effective CDR data is analysed and calculated through fitting distribution test,and the 85%quantile value of its distribution is taken as the threshold value of dangerous CDR.Finally,a CDR-based continuous downhill truck rear-end collision risk probability model is established combining with the concept of collision potential index(CPI).Based on the data of rear-end collision accident in the special control area of expressway,the CDR-based continuous downhill truck rear-end collision risk probability model is applied and tested.The result shows that(1)in the fitting distribution test,the CDR samples of the studied continuous downhill section obey lognormal distribution,the threshold value of hazardous CDR is 0.4916 m/s~2;(2)there is a significant difference in the probability risk of rear-end collision at different measuring points,but there is no significant difference in the risk of rear-end collision in different time periods;(3)it is verified that the correlation coefficient between the accident rate data and the probability risk data is 94.5%,which is a strong correlation,that is,the change trends of the accident rate data and the probability risk data is consistent,indicating that the CDR-based rear-end collision accident

关 键 词：交通安全 货车追尾风险 风险概率模型 连续下坡 碰撞减速率 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]