机器人与非正规就业  

Robots and Informal Employment

作　　者：陈佳莹 赵佩玉 赵勇[2] CHEN Jiaying;ZHAO Peiyu;ZHAO Yong(Renmin University,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学应用经济学院,100872 [2]中国人民大学经济学院,100872

出　　处：《经济学动态》2022年第12期67-83,共17页Economic Perspectives

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“人工智能与出口贸易高质量发展研究”(20BJY195);国家自然科学基金青年项目“精准扶贫影响教育不平等的研究”(72103189)。

摘　　要：机器人的推广对劳动力市场带来了明显的冲击,如何稳定就业、推动灵活就业成为当前的重要议题。本文结合国际机器人联盟(IFR)数据和中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据发现,机器人的使用尽管没有影响就业总量,但是显著提升了个体非正规就业的概率,替代效应在其中发挥主要作用。男性、农业户口和受教育程度较低的群体受到机器人的冲击更大;在工资成本较高的城市机器人对正规就业的替代作用更强。具体来讲,机器人显著提升了低教育水平群体进行生存型创业的概率,降低了其在大企业正规就业概率,同时机器人的推广降低了高教育水平群体机会型创业的可能性。本文为如何应对自动化冲击、维持就业市场的稳定提供了政策参考。The adoption of robots has brought about a significant impact on the labor market. How to stabilize employment and promote flexible employment has become an important topic. Combining data from IFR and China Family Panel Studies(CFPS), we find that even though the use of robots shows little impact on the probability of being employed, it significantly increases informal employment, among which the substitution effect plays a major role. Males, individuals with rural hukou and those less-educated are mostly affected, while robots show a stronger replacement effect for formal employment in cities where labor cost is high. To be more specific, robots have significantly improved the probability of starting necessity business for those less-educated, reduced their probability of being formally employed in large enterprises, and the utilization of robots has reduced the possibility of starting opportunity business for those highly-educated. This paper derives policy implications for how to respond to automation and maintain the stability of the labor market.

关 键 词：机器人 非正规就业 生存型创业 机会型创业 非正规受雇 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济] F426.67[经济管理—国民经济]