基于Bayes网络的地铁水灾事件情景构建及演化分析  

Construction and Evolution Analysis of Subway Flood Event Scenarios Based on Bayes Network

作　　者：王莉 张诚刚 霍颖楠 WANG Li;ZHANG Chenggang;HUO Yingnan(School of Safety Science and Engineering,Xi’an University of Science and Technology,Xi’an710054,China)

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学安全科学与工程学院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2023年第1期101-106,172,共7页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51874237、52074214);西安科技大学哲学社会科学繁荣项目(2021SY04)。

摘　　要：2021年7月郑州暴雨灾害给地铁运行带来灾难性的后果,地铁水灾事件的预防和应急管理需要引起重视。为加强应对地铁突发水灾事故的应急管理能力,在对近5年我国地铁水灾事件分析的基础上,通过分析地铁水灾事件情景演化全流程,构建地铁水灾事件情景贝叶斯(Bayes)网络,并结合专家打分法和交叉影响分析法,确定事件间的交叉影响矩阵,计算得出地铁水灾后果事件在不同情景下的概率,以及从监测预警、疏通排水和应急救援三个方面可有效地将地铁水灾后果事件概率从最初的52.2%、56.2%和63.4%降低到34.1%、21.4%和25.6%,并基于对事故案例原因和对比结果的分析,针对地铁水灾事故防控,提出应从不同的应急管理视角出发,对应急预案进行完善和优化,以提高地铁水灾事件的应急管理能力水平,最大程度上将地铁水灾后果事件概率降到最低。In July 2021,the heavy rain disaster in Zhengzhou caused disastrous consequences to subway operation. The prevention and emergency management of subway flood events need to be paid attention to. In order to strengthen the emergency management ability to deal with the sudden subway flood, based on the analysis of the domestic subway flood events in recent 5 years, this paper establishes the whole process of the subway flood event scenario evolution and the Bayes network of the subway flood event scenario evolution, and combines expert scoring method and cross-impact analysis method to determine the cross-impact matrix and calculate the prediction probability of subway flood consequence event under different scenarios.It is illurstrated that from the three aspects of monitoring and early warning, dredging drainage and emergency rescue, the probability of subway flood consequence event can be effectively reduced from 52.2%,56.2%,63.4% to 34.1%,21.4% and 25.6%.Based on the analysis of the causes and comparative results of the incidents, the prevention and control of subway flood accidents is aimed at the prevention and control of subway flood accidents.From different emergency management perspectives, China should perfect and optimize the emergency plan and improve the emergency management capability level of subway flood events, in order to minimize the probability of accident consequences to the greatest extent.

关 键 词：地铁水灾 突发事件 贝叶斯网络 情景应对 情景演变 应急响应 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] U231.96[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]