岩石破坏短临预报研究进展——岩石破坏短临预报竞赛评述  

Research progress on short-impending prediction of rock failure——Comments on the competition of short-impending prediction of rock failure

作　　者：冯增朝[1] 吕兆兴[1] 赵阳升[1] FENG Zengchao;LV Zhaoxing;ZHAO Yangsheng(Key Laboratory of In-situ Property-improving Mining of Ministry of Education,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan,Shanxi 030024,China)

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学原位改性采矿教育部重点实验室,山西太原030024

出　　处：《岩石力学与工程学报》2022年第12期2522-2529,共8页Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering

摘　　要：地震、滑坡、岩爆、瓦斯突出等岩体系统重大自然、工程灾害的预测预报是人类远未解决的重大难题,岩石破坏短临预报正是其核心科学问题。持续开展岩石破坏短临预报竞赛,能够激发多领域学者的创造与创新灵感,以推动岩石与岩体系统失稳破坏监测预报理论、方法、技术与仪器的创新与快速发展。本文较详细介绍了第一、二届岩石破坏短临预报竞赛的情况,包括:竞赛规则,由预报时间、能量与破坏位置组成的评分指标和标准,各参赛队所采用的预报理论、方法和测试仪器及相关的预报结果。对比分析参赛队岩体破坏预测预报研究的最新理论、方法与测试仪器的优缺点和未来的发展方向。2届竞赛结果清晰表明,以破坏短临预报为核心的非线性岩体力学——灾害岩体力学的理论、方法与测试仪器仍处于初级水平。The prediction of major natural and engineering disasters in the rock mass system such as earthquakes,landslides,rock burst and gas outburst is a major problem far from being solved by mankind.The short-term prediction of rock failure is its key scientific problem.The purpose of carrying out the short-term prediction competition of rock failure will not only stimulate the creation and innovation inspiration of scholars in multiple fields but also will promote the innovation and rapid development of instability destruction monitoring prediction theory,methods,technologies and instruments in rock and rock mass.In this paper,a detailed description of the first and second short-term competitions of rock failure is provided,including competition rules,scoring indexes consisting of prediction time,energy and location of damage,forecast theory,methods and test instruments used by each participating team,and final forecast results.At the same time,the latest theories and methods adopted by the participating teams regarding rock destruction prediction research,as well as the advantages and disadvantages of test instruments and the development direction of future research are comparatively analyzed.The results of the two competitions show that the theory,methods,and testing instruments of nonlinear rock mass mechanicsdisaster rock mass mechanics,which are at the core of the destruction short clinical predictions,are still at an elementary level.

关 键 词：岩石力学 岩石破坏 短临预报 非线性 竞赛 

分 类 号：TU45[建筑科学—岩土工程]