大数据背景下基于微分博弈模型的灾害适应性能力提升研究  

Research on Disaster Adaptability Improvement Based on Differential Game Model in the Context of Big Data

作　　者：何树红[1] 黄敏 HE Shuhong;HUANG Min(School of Economics,Yunnan University,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学经济学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《灾害学》2023年第1期37-42,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“西南地区泥石流灾害损失测度及救灾管理研究”(71661030)。

摘　　要：在大数据信息时代背景下,通过分析灾害治理的新特征和灾害适应性能力水平的评估因素,建立政企合作治灾的两种微分博弈模型,提出了测度灾害适应性能力水平的微分方程,进一步求解出两种博弈模式下,政企合作的整体最优收益值轨迹和长期中灾害适应性能力水平随时间变化的轨迹。结果表明,Stackelberg模式下的灾害适应性能力水平和整体收益水平低于协同合作模式下的水平。通过关键参数灵敏度分析,探讨灾害适应性能力水平的提升策略,在同一种模式下,降低政企对大数据技术的应用成本,增强灾害适应对经济活动的正向影响,均能提升灾害适应性能力水平。Under the background of big data information era,by analyzing the new features of disaster management and the assessment factors of disaster adaptability level,two differential game models of government-enterprise cooperation in disaster management are established,and the differential equations for measuring disaster adaptability level are proposed.The overall optimal revenue trajectory of government-enterprise cooperation and the trajectory of disaster adaptability level over time in the long run show that the disaster adaptability level and overall revenue level under the Stackelberg model are lower than those under the cooperative model.Through the sensitivity analysis of key parameters,the strategies to improve the level of disaster adaptability are discussed.In the same mode,reducing the application cost of big data technology by government and enterprises and enhancing the positive impact of disaster adaptation on economic activities can all improve the level of disaster adaptability.

关 键 词：大数据 灾害适应性能力水平 微分博弈模型 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5