基于连续半偏减法集对势的区域旱灾风险评估方法  

Drought Risk Assessment Method Based on A Continuous Semi-partial Subtraction Set Pair Potential

作　　者：汪洁 金菊良[1,2] 周戎星[1,2] 崔毅[1,2] 周婷[3] 周亮广[1,2] WANG Jie;JIN Juliang;ZHOU Rongxing;CUI Yi;ZHOU Ting;ZHOU Liangguang(School of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering,Hefei University ofTechnology,Hefei 230009,China;Department of Water Resources Engineering,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230036,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所,安徽合肥230009 [3]安徽农业大学水利工程系,安徽合肥230036

出　　处：《灾害学》2023年第1期229-234,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U2240223,52109009);安徽省自然科学基金项目(2208085US03,2108085QE254);安徽省高校优秀青年人才支持计划项目(gxyq2020055)。

摘　　要：为更详细、准确地挖掘旱灾风险评估中评级标准与评价等级之间确定性与不确定性之间的关系信息,在五元半偏减法集对势的基础上提出连续半偏减法集对势,构建了区域旱灾风险评估的连续半偏减法集对势模型,并应用在1999—2005年济南市脆弱性因子的诊断和旱灾风险等级评价中。结果表明:济南市旱灾风险等级评价基本处于2~3级之间,处于轻中险的状态,其中1999年旱灾风险等级最高,达到3级;通过子系统联系数的计算,识别出适应性子系统得到很大的提高,敏感性子系统稳定、变化较小,危险性子系统态势较好、处于均势与同势之间。In order to explore the information of the relationship between certainty and uncertainty between rating criteria and evaluation levels in the assessment of drought risk in a more detailed and accurate way,we proposed the continuous semipartial set pair potential based on the five-element semipartial set pair potential,and constructed the continuous semipartial set pair potential model for regional drought risk evaluation,and applied it in the diagnosis of vulnerability factors and evaluation of drought risk levels in Jinan City from 1999 to 2005.The results show that The results show that the drought risk level evaluation of Jinan City is basically between level 2 and level 3,which is in a light to medium risk status,among which the highest drought risk level is level 3 in 1999;through the calculation of subsystem linkage,it can be identified that the adaptive subsystem has been greatly improved,the sensitive subsystem is stable and less changeable,and the hazard subsystem is in a good posture between the mean potential and the same potential.

关 键 词：旱灾风险评估 集对分析 联系数 连续半偏集对势 济南市 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5[农业科学—植物保护] S423[天文地球—水文科学] P338[水利工程—水文学及水资源]