碳交易政策提高中国省域低碳贸易竞争力了吗?——基于碳排放权交易试点的准自然试验  

The Influence of Carbon Trading Policies on the Competitiveness of Provincial Low-carbon Trade: A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on Pilot Carbon Emissions Trading

作　　者：胡剑波[1] 张宽元 蔡雯欣 HU Jian-bo;ZHANG Kuan-yuan;CAI Wen-xin(School of Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China;School of Big Data Application and Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学经济学院,贵州贵阳550025 [2]贵州财经大学大数据应用与经济学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《杭州师范大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第1期108-120,共13页Journal of Hangzhou Normal University(Humanities and Social Sciences)

摘　　要：党的二十大报告中指出“要加快发展方式绿色转型,推进生态优先、节约集约、绿色低碳发展”。在面临“加快建设贸易强国”与“积极参与应对气候变化全球治理”的双重任务中,通过环境规制手段突破对外贸易的绿色壁垒、打破对外贸易的绿色约束,将成为推进对外贸易低碳发展、促进经济建设与生态文明协调发展的重要依托。鉴于此,基于2010—2019年中国30个省市自治区(西藏、香港、澳门、台湾除外)数据,构建省级层面低碳贸易竞争力指数,以碳排放权交易试点为准自然试验,运用双重差分法考察其对低碳贸易竞争力的影响及作用机制。研究结果表明:碳交易政策显著提高了中国试点省市的低碳贸易竞争力水平,其提升过程具有渐进性,即存在效应时滞;该结论在动态时间窗、倾向得分匹配双重差分、安慰剂等一系列检验下仍具有稳健性;作用机制显示,碳交易政策通过成本优化驱动、收益补偿激励和风险波动规避,推动低碳技术创新和能源结构改进,促进低碳贸易竞争力的提高;异质性检验结果显示,低碳贸易竞争力对于欠发达省份的促进作用更加明显。The report of the Twentieth National Congress of the Communist Party of China points out that we should accelerate the green transformation of the development mode, and promote ecological priority, conservation and intensive, green and low-carbon development. in the face of the dual task of “accelerating the building of a trade power” and “actively addressing global governance of climate change”, breaking through the green barriers and the green constraints of foreign trade through environmental regulation will become an important support for promoting the coordinated development of economic construction and ecological civilization, and the green development of foreign trade. In view of this, this paper aims to construct a provincial-level low-carbon trade competitiveness index based on data from 30 provinces and cities(except Tibet) in the mainland of China from 2010 to 2019, and use a quasi-natural experiment of pilot carbon emissions trading to examine its impact and mechanism of action on low-carbon trade competitiveness by the double difference method. The findings show that carbon emissions trading policies have significantly increased the level of low carbon trade competitiveness of pilot provinces and cities, and the process of improvement is progressive, there is a time lag in the effect. In addition, the findings remain robust under a series of tests including propensity score matching double difference method and placebo;the mechanism of action suggests that carbon trading policies induce low carbon technology innovation and energy mix improvement through cost optimization drive, benefit compensation incentive and risk volatility avoidance, and promote low carbon trade competitiveness. The results of the heterogeneity test show that low carbon trade competitiveness is more significant for the less developed provinces.

关 键 词：绿色发展 碳交易政策 低碳贸易竞争力 双重差分 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]