基于预测的成品油客户回购策略与探析  

Prediction-Based Repurchase Strategy and Analysis of Oil Products Customers

作　　者：郭彦钢 Guo Yangang

机构地区：[1]中国石化北京石油分公司,北京100022

出　　处：《石油库与加油站》2022年第6期8-11,I0001,I0002,共6页Oil Depot And Gas Station

摘　　要：为提高成品油零售市场的营销效果,提升销售业务服务水平,研发了一种成品油客户回购策略模型。该策略核心是判断油品零售客户下次加油时间的方法。通过该方法生成的预测时间对其进行优惠券或优价促销通知,吸引其进站加油。该方法是对客户特征进行标准化,对群体进行分群,通过相似客户群体频率特征加权个人频率特征得到最终的客户未来加油时间,克服了常规方法因交易数据缺失造成的预测不准的缺点,提升了预测精度。In order to improve the marketing effect of oil products retail market and improve the service level of sales business,a repurchase strategy model for oil products customers was developed.The core of this strategy is the method to judge the next refueling time of oil retail customers.The forecast time generated by this method will be used for coupon or discount promotion notification to attract customers to enter the station for refueling.This method standardizes customer characteristics,divides groups,and obtains the final customer’s future refueling time by weighting individual frequency characteristics with similar customer group frequency characteristics.It overcomes the shortcomings of inaccurate prediction caused by missing transaction data in conventional methods and improves the prediction accuracy.

关 键 词：成品油 客户 回购 预测 营销 策略 聚类 信度理论 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理] F426.22[经济管理—国民经济]