数字技术创新与国际战略竞争  

Digital Technology Innovation and International Strategic Competition

作　　者：孙学峰[1] SUN Xuefeng

机构地区：[1]清华大学国际关系研究院,北京100084

出　　处：《外交评论（外交学院学报）》2023年第1期54-77,I0002,I0003,共26页Foreign Affairs Review

基　　金：清华大学自主科研计划(项目编号:2021THZWJC36)资助。

摘　　要：数字技术的更新迭代正推动人类社会加速进入数字经济时代,与此同时,其也给国家带来了不同于以往的战略压力,网络攻击成为国家难以回避的安全威胁,数字技术能力及其与其他国力要素的融合成为大国战略竞争的核心,与之相伴随的则是国家(尤其是大国)之间围绕数字技术国际规范的激烈论争。为缓解数字技术创新所带来的竞争压力,国家的总体应对思路可概括为实力路径和规范路径。就实力路径而言,无论是网络威慑还是同盟合作,其核心都是寻求数字和物理空间实力/影响力的有机融合。就规范路径而言,尽管国际社会推动网络和数字技术国际规范的努力有所进展,但随着数字技术成为大国竞争的核心,体系大国就相应国际规范达成共识的难度越来越大。不过,值得注意的是,虽然互联网和数字技术的兴起推动了大国战略竞争的转型,但尚未给国际冲突带来颠覆性变化,其原因在于目前新兴技术的军事应用水平仍难以突破传统军事能力的约束。展望未来,数字技术与其他国力要素的融合仍将是大国战略竞争的核心所在,而推动同盟/伙伴关系拓展至数字空间以及国际规范论争,也将是数字时代国际战略竞争的重要组成部分。In propelling human society towards the era of digital economy,the development of digital technologies also brings emerging strategic pressure to bear.Cyber-attacks are becoming a security threat that states can no longer avoid.Meanwhile,digital technology capabilities and their integration with other elements of national power now constitute the core of strategic competition among great powers.Digital technology innovation has also led to fierce contestation regarding international norms for cyber security and digital spaces.The approaches to moderating the competitive pressures that digital technologies generate can be summarized as normative and material.The material approach mainly comprises cyber deterrence and alliance cooperation,both of which seek a fusion of power/influence in the digital and physical spaces.As for the normative approach,despite the progress of international efforts to promote international norms for cyber security and digital technology,strategic competition among great powers has made it increasingly difficult for international society to reach a consensus on such norms.However,it is worth noting that even though the rise of the Internet and of digital technologies has contributed to the transformation of strategic competition among great powers,it has not caused disruptive changes in international conflicts/wars.This is because,at their current level,it is still difficult for emerging digital technology applications for the military to break through the constraints of traditional military capabilities.In the near future,integrating digital technologies with other elements of national power will remain crucial to strategic competition among great powers.Promoting alliances/partnerships in digital space and the contesting of international norms for digital technologies will also be essential components of international strategic competition in the digital age.

关 键 词：数字技术 国际体系 战略竞争 国际规范 国际冲突 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] D815[政治法律—国际关系]