2008—2018年淮河流域食管癌死亡趋势及其对期望寿命的影响  

Analysis of esophageal cancer death trend and its impact on life expectancy in Huai river basin from 2008 to 2018

作　　者：王秋童 齐金蕾[2] 王宁[1] 胡亚男 何凤蝶 王丹 王宝华[1] WANG Qiu-tong;QI Jin-lei;WANG Ning;HU Ya-nan;HE Feng-die;WANG Dan;WANG Bao-hua(Key Chronic Disease Control and Prevention Laboratory,National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100050,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心重点慢病防控实验室,北京100050 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心生命登记与死因监测室 [3]中国医科大学公共卫生学院

出　　处：《中国慢性病预防与控制》2022年第12期899-902,909,共5页Chinese Journal of Prevention and Control of Chronic Diseases

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFC1302603,2016YFC1302600)。

摘　　要：目的分析2008—2018年淮河流域食管癌死亡率变化趋势,探讨食管癌死亡对期望寿命变化的影响程度,为评估食管癌防控效果、制定公共卫生政策提供依据。方法基于2008—2018年中国疾病预防控制中心全国死因监测数据库,分析该地区食管癌标化死亡率(SMR)、去死因期望寿命(CELE)、去死因期望寿命增长年(PGLEs),采用SAS 9.4软件进行统计分析,采用Joinpoint 4.9.0.0软件计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)来评价死亡率的时间变化趋势,采用Arriaga分解法估计各年龄组食管癌死亡率变化对期望寿命变化的贡献情况。结果2008—2018年淮河流域食管癌SMR呈现下降趋势(AAPC=-6.98%,P<0.01)。食管癌死亡率变化对期望寿命增长贡献了0.246岁,占期望寿命增长的5.76%。总人群中各年龄组均为正向贡献,贡献最大的是70~74岁组(0.044岁),占所有年龄组总贡献的1.03%。2008—2018年,食管癌CELE增长了4.18岁(AAPC=0.58%,P<0.01),PGLEs下降了0.09岁(AAPC=-1.46%,P<0.05),寿命损失率下降了0.14%(AAPC=-2.07%,P<0.05)。埇桥区的食管癌PGLEs增长了0.11岁,其余县(区)食管癌PGLEs均下降。结论2008—2018年淮河流域食管癌死亡率呈下降趋势。食管癌死亡率变化对期望寿命增长起到了积极作用,食管癌死亡对期望寿命的影响程度有所下降。Objective To analyze the change trend of esophageal cancer mortality in Huai river basin from 2008 to 2018,and explore the effects of esophageal cancer death on life expectancy(LE)change,and provide the basis for evaluating the effect of prevention and control of esophageal cancer and developing public health policy.Methods Based on the data of National Causeof-Death Surveillance of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,the standardized mortality rate(SMR),cause eliminated life expectancy(CELE)and potential gains in life expectancy(PGLEs)of esophageal cancer were analyzed.Joinpoint4.9.0.0 software was used to calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC)for assessing the time change trend of mortality,Arriaga’s decomposition method was used to estimate the contribution of the changes of esophageal cancer mortality to LE in each age group.The used software was SAS 9.4.Results The SMR of esophageal cancer in Huai river basin from 2008 to2018 showed a downward trend(AAPC=-6.98%,P<0.05).The changes of esophageal cancer mortality have the positive effect on the increase of LE,the contribution value was 0.246 years,and the contribution degree was 5.76%.All age groups had the positive contribution,the contribution of 70-74 years old group was the biggest(0.044 year old),which was 1.03%of total contribution in all age groups.From 2008 to 2018,CELE of esophageal cancer increased by 4.18 years(AAPC=0.58%,P<0.01);PGLEs decreased by 0.09 years(AAPC=-1.46%,P<0.05);and life loss rate decreased by 0.14%(AAPC=-2.07%,P<0.05).PGLEs of esophageal cancer in Yongqiao district increased by 0.11 years,but PGLEs of esophageal cancer in other counties and districts decreased.Conclusion From 2008 to 2018,the SMR of esophageal cancer in Huai river basin shows a downward trend and plays a positive role in the growth of LE.The effect of esophageal cancer death on LE decreases.

关 键 词：食管癌 死亡率 趋势 去死因期望寿命 去死因期望寿命增长年 

分 类 号：R735.1[医药卫生—肿瘤]