中国省域人口、资源、经济与环境(PREE)系统耦合协调的时空演变特征与预测分析  

The Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Prediction Analysis of the Coupling Coordination of Population, Resources, Economy and Environment(PREE)System in China’s Provinces

作　　者：范丽玉 高峰[1] FAN Liyu;GAO Feng(School of Economic,Shandong University of Technology,Zibo Shandong 255012,China)

机构地区：[1]山东理工大学经济学院,山东淄博255012

出　　处：《生态经济》2023年第3期168-176,共9页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“基于要素流动的东部试验区城乡融合发展路径和政策体系研究”(21BJL050);山东省社会科学基金一般项目“山东省农村劳动力国际流动问题研究”(17CJJJ24)。

摘　　要：面对日益严峻的人口、资源、经济与环境之间的矛盾,研究人口、资源、经济与环境之间的协调发展,能对经济社会的可持续发展提供理论指导。借助2010—2019年中国31个省份的数据,运用空间计量方法与灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对PREE系统耦合协调发展水平进行时空演变特征分析与预测。结果表明:PREE系统协调水平在波动中上升,已由轻度失调转变为中度协调状态。地区协调水平差异先变小后边大,系统协调水平的分布特征已从“东高西低”转变为“西高东低”,产生了系统协调水平的“倒挂”现象。各省份间系统协调水平的空间相关性正逐步增强,东、中、西三大分区呈现出不同的动态演进趋势,并伴随着不同程度的两极分化现象。未来5年系统耦合协调水平将持续上升,但地区间仍存在较大差异,并存在不同的瓶颈约束。因此,PREE系统耦合协调发展需从系统本身与区域发展两个角度进行调整,因地制宜制定策略规划。Facing the increasingly severe contradiction between population,resources,economy and environment,studying the coordinated development among population,resources,economy and environment can provide theoretical guidance for the sustainable development of economy and society.Based on the data of 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the PREE system were analyzed and predicted by using the spatial econometric method and the grey GM(1,1)prediction model.The results showed that the coordination level of the PREE system increased in fluctuations,and it had changed from a mild disorder to a moderate coordination state.The differences in regional coordination levels first became smaller and then became larger,and the distribution characteristics of system coordination levels have changed from“high in the east and low in the west”to“high in the west and low in the east”,resulting in an“inverted”phenomenon of system coordination levels.The spatial correlation of the level of system coordination among provinces is gradually increasing,and the three major sub-regions,east,middle and west,show different dynamic evolution trends and are accompanied by different degrees of polarization.In the next five years,the level of system coupling and coordination will continue to rise,but there are still large differences between regions,and there are different bottleneck constraints.Therefore,the coupled and coordinated development of the PREE system needs to be adjusted from the perspective of the system itself and regional development,and a strategic plan should be formulated according to local conditions.

关 键 词：PREE系统 协调运行机制 动态演进 两极分化 预测 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]