多灾种风险评估方法述评——基于5份国际权威报告的对比分析  

Multi-hazard risk assessment methods:A comparative analysis based on five authoritative reports

作　　者：宁嘉辰 吴吉东[1,2] 唐茹玫 陈笑娟 许映军[2] NING Jiachen;WU Jidong;TANG Rumei;CHEN Xiaojuan;XU Yingjun(State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;School of National Safety and Emergency Management,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Defense Center for Meteorological Disasters of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学国家安全与应急管理学院,北京100875 [3]河北省气象灾害防御中心,石家庄050021

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2023年第1期197-208,共12页Progress in Geography

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0906);国家自然科学基金项目(42077437)。

摘　　要：多灾种风险评估是制定综合风险防范战略的基础工作之一,而目前尚缺乏一套通用的多灾种风险评估方法。论文选取全球减少灾害风险评估报告、全球气候风险指数报告、世界风险管理指数报告、世界风险指数和世界自然灾害风险地图集等5份国际权威风险评估报告,从评估目的、评估内容、模型方法、评估结果等方面对比分析可知:①5份报告评估目的各有侧重,其中4份评估报告构建了动态风险评估机制,能够实现评估报告的定期更新发布;②以风险要素的综合为表征的多灾种风险评估方法易于推广应用,但需要进一步提升指标可用性,并且采取更直观、易于理解的风险表征方式;③5份报告评估结果中“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)的风险水平略高于全球水平,是全球灾害风险防范的重点;④综合来看,5份报告各有自身的优缺点,未来可以结合“多灾种叠加损失”“灾害链损失”等概念丰富多灾种风险评估的模型方法、指标体系与结果表征。Multi-hazard risk assessment is the basis for formulating integrated risk governance strategies.Through examining the risk assessment practices in China and internationally,this study selected five authoritative global risk assessment reports,including the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction,Global Climate Risk Index,The Index for Risk Management Report,World Risk Report,and World Atlas of Natural Disaster Risk,to compare their objectives,contents,models,and results of assessment.The main conclusions are as follows:1)The five risk assessment reports have different focuses in terms of objectives,and four of them regularly publish new reports to analyze the dynamic process of change that facilitates the identification of risks through continuous risk assessment.2)The methods characterized by the synthesis of risk elements is easy to apply,but it is necessary to further improve the applicability of indicators and adopt more intuitive and practical risk representation methods.3)The Belt and Road initiative countries have slightly higher risk levels than the global average.In the future,we need to deepen the research on the integrated risk assessment method of multi-hazards,strengthen the practice of natural disaster risk assessment in China,and explore the disaster risk management system of regional linkages.4)On the whole,the five risk assessment reports all have their own advantages and disadvantages.In the future,we can combine the concepts of"multihazard additive losses"and"disaster chain losses"to enrich the models and methods,indicator system,and result representation of integrated risk assessment.

关 键 词：灾害 多灾种 风险评估模型 综合风险防范 风险评估报告 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]