基于销售预测的卷烟库存管理研究  

Study on Cigarette Inventory Management Based on Sales Forecast

作　　者：吴劲松 WU Jin-song(Huaibei Tobacco Monopoly Bureau(Company),Huaibei 235000,China)

机构地区：[1]淮北市烟草专卖局(公司),淮北235000

出　　处：《价值工程》2023年第5期23-25,共3页Value Engineering

摘　　要：本文通过对淮北烟草近年销售情况与数据的分析,研究了销售预测模型构建以及如何利用销售预测模型进行科学的库存管理问题。深入分析了淮北辖区卷烟零售市场的发展状况,并结合淮北烟草的历史销售数据,分析了影响卷烟销售的重要因素;运用多元回归模型构建了销售预测模型,并对该模型的预测效果进行了检验;在此基础上,结合公司运营实际情况及销售预测模型,提出了公司库存管理的新方案,并利用新的库存管理模式对公司未来的库存结构和效率进行预测,验证了新方法为企业维持适当的库存水平、提高运营效率、改善盈利水平提供了一条可行的途径。Based on the analysis of the sales situation and data of Huaibei Tobacco in recent years,this paper studies the construction of the sales forecast model and how to use the sales forecast model for scientific inventory management.This paper analyzes the development of cigarette retail market in Huaibei,and analyzes the important factors affecting cigarette sales based on the historical sales data of Huaibei Tobacco.The sales forecasting model is constructed by using multiple regression model,and the forecasting effect of the model is tested.On this basis,combined with the actual situation of the company's operation and the sales forecast model,this paper puts forward a new plan for the company's inventory management,and uses the new inventory management model to predict the company's future inventory structure and efficiency,which verifies that the new method provides a feasible way for enterprises to maintain an appropriate inventory level,improve operating efficiency and improve profitability.

关 键 词：销售预测模型 库存管理 烟草行业 淮北市烟草专卖局 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理] F721[经济管理—国民经济]